Austin could be 3rd biggest metro in U.S. by year 2100, new report says

welcome, newstonians

Photo by Jeremy Doddridge on Unsplash

Start spreading the news: Austin will eclipse New York City as the 3rd biggest metro area by the year 2100, a new report predicts.

An analysis by moving services site moveBuddha published June 22 says Austin's population could swell to 22.29 million people in the next 77 years.

Based on current population and migration trends, in fact, America’s three biggest metropolitan areas by 2100 will be Dallas-Fort Worth (No. 1), Houston (No. 2), and Austin (No. 3), replacing New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago as the country’s most populous metros, the report predicts.

Dallas-Fort Worth's population is estimated to grow to 33.91 million, and Houston's is projected to jump to 31.38 million.

"The future of America may lie in Texas," the report's author says.

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau says Austin is currently the No. 10 biggest city in the country, and the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown metro area has a population of nearly 2.3 million and a 10-year growth rate of about 33 percent.

There are some risks to continued population booms, including the effects of climate change, moveBuddha points out. While heat will be a major issue, there are much more dangerous possibilities.

"Like the rest of Texas, Austin will be much hotter by 2100," the report's author says. "Along with sweltering temperatures, water scarcity could be an issue."

Thankfully for Austin and other Texas cities, a plan is already in place to address looming water availability issues.

"Austin’s city government adopted a 100-year water plan in 2018 that calls for conserving, recycling, and re-engineering its water infrastructure system," the report says.

The study also comes with an obvious caveat: no one is sure what the future looks like in terms of population growth. Academics, scientists, and futurists alike haven't been able to agree on population predictions. Climate change isn't just a risk for Austin, but for the entire world, the report reminds.

"According to one GDP projection through 2099, over three-quarters of U.S. counties will suffer economically because of climate damage," the report says. "That could be from everything from heat-related deaths to sea-level rise to increased natural disasters... But if global warming is held in check, Texas may be America’s haven in 2100. New technologies may help us adapt to extreme weather and heat."

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)

These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people. The study then hypothesized the annual compound growth rates between 2020 and 2100 to find 2100's estimated population numbers for the same cities.

The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.

wikimedia.org

Charming Austin suburb is the fastest-growing city in the country, with neighbors close behind

POPULATION REPORT

We already know things are changing in Texas at large, but how about just outside of Austin? Now, six out of the 15 fastest-growing cities in the United States are in Texas, and three Austin-area suburbs made it into the top five: Georgetown, Kyle, and Leander. The U.S. Census Bureau's latest findings add more validity to reports that less people are interested in living in Austin proper, and are seeking residence in the suburbs.

“Georgetown, Texas, [had] the highest rate of growth among all U.S. cities and towns with at least 50,000 people,” said Crystal Delbé, a statistician in the Census Bureau’s Population Division.

Georgetown had a 14.4-percent population increase from 2021 to 2022, bringing the city's total population to more than 86,500 residents. That's a growth of nearly 10,900, which puts Georgetown at No. 10 on the list of numerical increases (as opposed to proportional growth). For scale, the report lists Austin at 1.0 million.

Kyle and Leander landed in No. 3 and No. 4 with the same population growth rate of 10.9 percent. Kyle's total population in 2022 was just under 57,500, while Leander's reached 74,375 residents.

The top 10 fastest-growing large cities in the U.S. are:

No. 1 – Georgetown, Texas
No. 2 – Santa Cruz, California
No. 3 – Kyle, Texas
No. 4 – Leander, Texas
No. 5 – Little Elm, Texas
No. 6 – Westfield, Indiana
No. 7 – Queen Creek, Arizona
No. 8 – North Port, Florida
No. 9 – Cape Coral, Florida
No. 10 – Port St. Lucie, Florida

In an overall analysis of the 15 largest American cities in 2022, Austin barely made it into the top 10 with a population of 974,447. Three Texas cities ranked higher, with Houston earning No. 4 with its population of over 2.3 million people, San Antonio at No. 7 with over 1.47 million residents, and Dallas at No. 9 with a population of just under 1.3 million. Fort Worth ranked outside the top 10 at No. 13, with a population of 956,709.

The top 10 most populous American cities are:

No. 1 – New York City, New York
No. 2 – Los Angeles, California
No. 3 – Chicago, Illinois
No. 4 – Houston, Texas
No. 5 – Phoenix, Arizona
No. 6 – Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
No. 7 – San Antonio, Texas
No. 8 – San Diego, California
No. 9 – Dallas, Texas
No. 10 – Austin, Texas

The report additionally discovered that housing inventory skyrocketed by 1.6 million units between 2021 and 2022. Texas had the third fastest housing growth with a rate of 2.3 percent, versus Utah, which had the fastest growth at 3.3 percent. Travis County had the third highest numeric gains in housing units in the nation, only to be beat by Maricopa County in Arizona (No. 2) and Harris County (No. 1).

Austin didn't make the cut in the list of the 10 most populous U.S. metro areas (as opposed to the cities, themselves), but Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington ranked No. 4, and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land ranked No. 5.

The full report can be found on census.gov.

Ad Placement 300x100

Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Property Showcase

Radio Coffee brings the brews to new shop and music venue in October

going live in the fall

When it comes to expanding the influence of coffee connoisseurs in Austin, there's room for everyone on the East Side.

One East Austin coffee shop just changed hands for a fancy rebrand, and another recently expanded out of the area into Buda. Cosmic Coffee, a South Austin staple, blew everyone out of the water with a gorgeous, sprawling industrial complex on East 4th Street, and now another neighboring coffee and beer combo is following suit.

Radio/East, a second location spun off from the original music-loving Radio Coffee & Beer, announced today that it will open its doors at 3504 Montopolis Drive in East Austin on Wednesday, October 18.

The new family- and dog-friendly space sprawls across two acres, which is divvied up between a 1200-square-foot indoor coffee shop, indoor and outdoor live music stages, and a food truck park. Guests will be able to order their favorite drinks from the indoor counter, or they can choose to order from either of the two outdoor windows that open to the grand shaded backyard. And we can't forget one of the more rare features: plenty of parking for customers.

Radio's founding father-son duo Jack and Greg Wilson brought on two new partners — Trey Hudson and Nine Mile Records owner Rick Pierik — in the hopes of developing and maintaining this new spot as a community-focused space, much like the beloved original.

“With the new space, we’ve been able to create a through line to the existing concept of Radio,” said Hudson in a release. “With Radio/East we tried to listen to what the Montopolis community needed and we hope that we can be as central to this neighborhood as we have been to the area around Menchaca.”

Pierik will be the driving force behind Radio/East's musical events. Local musicians and touring bands will all get their chance to take the stage with four nights of performances planned indoors and outdoors beginning on Thursdays.

With Austin's wide-ranging music taste, Pierik will seek to reflect the city's musical diversity with every show.

"Jack Wilson and I are looking to bring together diverse programing from every corner of the music industry, booking up-and-coming national and international acts alongside all of the amazing Austin talent we've known and admired for years," said Pierik. "We're especially committed to helping local artists develop their fanbases through quality concert experiences and eclectic bills."

A list of events following Radio/East's grand opening is as follows:

October 19 – Sunrosa with Guma and Feeling Small
October 20 – Redbud with Mockjaw, Tearjerk, and Creekbed Carter Hogan
October 21 – Peachfuzz 10th Anniversary Party featuring The Texas Gentleman, Brown Burlesque, Lady Dan, and a to-be-announced special guest
October 28 – First Annual Radio/East Chili Cook Off and the Austin Flea, featuring Mother Neff, The Push & Shove, and Sour Bridges
October 31 – A Rocky Horror Halloween featuring A Giant Dog with Trouble in the Streets
November 11 – A Free Lunch Benefit featuring Caroline Rose and BRUCE
November 17 – Money Chicha with The Tiarras

Tickets for the upcoming shows can be purchased online beginning Friday, September 29.

In addition to keeping Radio/East music-focused, visitors can expect to see some classic beverages on the menu, with a few new twists to keep customers coming back. The new location will have two tap towers with eight craft beer taps, four rotating specialty draft cocktails, and plenty of wine to go around.

Radio/East Get a local favorite beer on draft, or try a new specialty draft cocktail.Photo by Renee Dominguez

Bar Manager Jacob Biggie has been hard at work to develop new creative cocktails for the new location, including Phantom Mood (Still Austin Gin, hibiscus, lime, and cucumber with soda) and Sensitive Artist (Senza Maeso hybrid spirit, Aperol, St. Germain, lime juice). Guests can also try the new seasonal non-alcoholic highball, dubbed the Chai-ball.

The lineup of food vendors at the new East Austin digs include Veracruz All Natural with its binge-worthy tacos; organic pizza slices from Side Eye Slice (a sister concept to Side Eye Pie); and Radio's own food truck – Shortwave Diner – offering classic American diner fare and comfort food such as smash burgers, fried chicken sandwiches, hot dogs, chicken and waffles, and more.

Following the grand opening at 7 am on October 18, Radio/East's operating hours will be 7 am to 1 am Monday through Saturday, and 7 am to 10 pm on Sundays.

Austin is No. 12 in the U.S. with the highest number of 'unretirees'

Office News

Many Austin seniors are still punching the clock well past retirement age. According to "Cities with the Most Working Seniors," a new employment study by business website ChamberofCommerce.org, more than a quarter of Austin seniors aged 65 and up are still employed, making it the No. 12 city in the U.S. with the most working seniors.

More than 25,400 Austin seniors aged 65 and up are employed out of a total 93,861, or 27.1 percent of the city's senior population.

The No. 1 city in the U.S. with hard-working oldsters is Alexandria, Virginia, located in the Washington, DC metropolitan area, where 36.8 percent of its seniors still employed. Coming in second was Tallahassee, Florida, with 30.9 percent. In third place was Dallas, with 30.3 percent of the senior population clocking in for work around the city.

To determine their ranking, the site examined the percentage of seniors aged 65 and over who were actively employed within the last 12 months, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Their analysis included data from 170 of the nation’s most populous cities.

The report says the median household income of a senior citizen in Austin is $58,546, and hints at the rising cost of living coupled with personal extenuating circumstances leading to a new trend of "unretiring" seniors within the local workforce.

"Deciding when to retire is one of the most important financial and personal decisions that workers can make," the report's author said. "Before making the leap, make sure you have factored in your savings, social security benefits, spending habits, economic volatility, and how your social life will change after retirement."

Also in Central Texas, San Antonio ranked No. 82 overall with 22.1 percent of the senior population currently in the workforce. Although that seems like a smaller number of people, it's actually much larger than Austin, with 41,918 seniors toiling away out of a total 189,544.

San Antonio's relatively high percentage of working seniors might come as a surprise, considering the city was named one of the best cities for retirees earlier in 2023.

The top 10 U.S. cities with the most working seniors are:

No. 1 – Alexandria, Virginia
No. 2 – Tallahassee, Florida
No. 3 – Dallas, Texas
No. 4 – Irvine, California
No. 5 – Washington, D.C.
No. 6 – Plano, Texas
No. 7 – Anchorage, Alaska
No. 8 – Minneapolis, Minnesota
No. 9 – Overland Park, Kansas
No. 10 – Madison, Wisconsin

ChamberofCommerce.org is a digital site for small business owners and entrepreneurs. The full report and its methodology can be found on chamberofcommerce.org.

Online home searching platform Compass buys top Austin-based brokerage

real estate news

National residential real estate agency Compass has acquired Realty Austin and Realty San Antonio, in a move that will expand its position as the leading national firm and its growth in Texas by more than 600 agents.

Although the sale price was not disclosed in Compass' announcement, the local brokerages completed $5.24 billion sales just in 2022 alone.

Compass added that the Austin and San Antonio leadership will have direct oversight of daily operations as part of the terms of the acquisition. Realty Austin and Realty San Antonio co-founder Yvette Flores maintains that she and her leadership team will strive for a "seamless transition" into the national firm that respects the home-grown culture they have created.

Realty Austin was founded in 2004 by Flores and Jonathan Boatwright, and has grown through the years to become one of the most innovative brokerages in Central Texas and beyond. The company expanded its operations to San Antonio in 2021.

Realty Austin and Realty San Antonio CEO Gabe Richter said in the release that Compass' leading-edge technology will help his agents foster greater successes, particularly in one booming Austin category: luxury real estate.

"Our agents have consistently set records with remarkable achievements," Richter said in the release. "Now, by aligning with Compass, they gain access to a transformative technology platform that enhances efficiency and elevated resources that empower them to secure even more luxury listings."

Compass was founded in 2012 as the largest real estate brokerage in the U.S., and preserves its stronghold as the No. 1 brokerage in Texas thanks to its milestone acquisition. The national brokerage has already surpassed $10 billion in sales in Texas in 2023, according to the release.

“With this acquisition, we've positioned ourselves as Austin's leading brokerage — our commitment to setting new standards and inspiring innovation for all our exceptional agents remains the top priority while honoring what Realty Austin and Realty San Antonio has built," said Compass Texas President Rachel Hocevar.

View All Listings