As San Antonio-Austin continues to evolve into a mega-region much like Dallas-Fort Worth, former San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisneros foresees the area being home to 8.3 million people in 2050 — enough people to support an NFL football team, MLB team, and NHL hockey team.
Cisneros, former secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), made that forecast on April 10 at the first-ever Austin-San Antonio Megaregional Collaborative gathering hosted by Texas State University in San Marcos.
Today, the San Antonio and Austin metro areas boast a combined population of about 5.3 million, Cisneros noted. So, if Austin-San Antonio were one metro area now, its population would make it the 10th largest metro area in the U.S., leapfrogging Phoenix in the national ranking of metro populations, he pointed out.
But just 25 years from now, Austin-San Antonio is poised to be home to 8.3 million people, Cisneros said. That’s around the current size of Dallas-Fort Worth, which sits at No. 4 on the list of the country’s most populous metros. And only 10 years later, in 2060, the population of the Austin-San Antonio megaregion should hit 9.6 million, he said. By comparison, the current population of the Chicago metro area is close to 9.3 million.
“So, this area is going to grow,” said Cisneros. “It’s not a question of if. It’s only a question of at what pace and whether or not we’re prepared for it.”
Cisneros said the mega-metro’s major-league sports presence should surpass the area’s two current franchises — the NBA’s San Antonio Spurs and Major League Soccer’s Austin FC — once the area’s population reaches 8.3 million. That number of people would give the area enough of a fan base to add an NFL team, Major League Baseball team, and NHL team, according to Cisneros. The development could transform San Antonio, where the Spurs might be getting a new arena as part of the $3-4 billion Project Marvel project downtown.
However, Cisneros doubts the Austin-San Antonio mega-region will build a major airport between Austin and San Antonio, as had once been proposed by the former mayor and other officials. Instead, he believes Austin-Bergstrom International Airport will become the region’s primary international airport “because of the strength of its runways and because it’s already on a roll.”
Meanwhile, Cisneros thinks San Antonio International Airport will wind up being the mega-region’s “lesser airport,” handling a lot of flights within the U.S. and to Mexico. Why? Because the site of San Antonio’s airport “is small as far as international airports go,” he said, “and there’s no viable discussion about building a new airport.” Although Cisneros said the San Antonio airport may lack international-level amenities, it is adding 17 gates and other improvements as part of a $2.5 billion overhaul that kicked off in December.
“So, we’re going to have to think in terms of how we rationalize flights and routes and so forth to serve [the] region,” Cisneros added. “There’s no reason for us to compete — have two different airports competing for airlines, routes, [and] traffic — when there’s a way to … make it work for the region as a whole.”