Texas politics
Sources say Texas primaries likely to move to April 3rd: What does that mean forthe voters?
Primary elections in Texas — including the contest for the Republican presidential nominee — are likely to be a month later than usual this year, sources tell CultureMap, as redistricting tangles and party politics wreack havoc on an important election cycle.
According to sources close to the redistricting fight on Friday, April 3, 2012 is the date expected to be approved by a three-judge panel in San Antoino and agreed upon by state Dems and Republicans. This would come about a month after the original primary date, when Democrats and Republicans choose their respective party's nominees for everything from county judge to president.
The panel, composed of two Republicans and a Democrat, hasn't yet announced its decision. But communications between the state's leadership Republicans indicate that neither side of the redistricting fight expects the judges to deny the new date.
At issue here is about 5 percent of Congressional, state rep and state Senate districts that were redrawn during the 2011 legislative session earlier this year, in a map later struck down by the judges' panel and redrawn more favorably for Democrats in recent weeks.
Every 10 years, states have to redraw their district lines in order to compensate for minority growth and population gains, with the ultimate purpose of keeping each district roughly equal in terms of population and ensuring that minorities are neither bundled into too few districts or diluted into too many.
It's a daunting task that has caused huge upheaval in the Legislature in the past, the most memorable of which was the Democratic walkout in 2003 — when then-Congressman Tom DeLay helped orchestrate a mid-decade redistricting plan that lead House Democrats to flee to Ardmore, Okla. to thwart it during the regular session and the Senate Dems to move to Albuquerque for three months to delay a special session on it.
Back to this round, redistricting fights have been screwing with the entire schedule — forcing some candidates to switch gears earlier this month after campaigning in new districts later eliminated by the judges and others to consider getting back in the game after they were forced to abandon Congressional runs when their district no longer existed.
And if you're still with me, that's not even the most complicated part.
The U.S. Supreme Court still wants to hear arguments on the competing maps in January, which means that their decision would come too late for filing for a March 6 primary — which coincides with Super Tuesday and would have given Texas a nice shot at the campaign money primary candidates like to spend in states that matter. (Read: the later the primary date, the less campaigning candidates will do in that state, the less money they'll spend there, etc.)
One alternative being floated by the GOP was to have the presidential primaries and other statewides on Super Tuesday, and move the districts affected — Congress, state House, state Senate — to May, to coincide with municipal elections. That way, Texas could still have some sway in the GOP nomination process. A little.
Two problems there:
- Statewide primaries cost millions of dollars in taxpayer money and really test the resources of the municipalities and county governments which have to run them.
- Primary campaigns often result in run-offs, and the run-off has to be six weeks after the initial contest — so a run-off in June for a May contest would come after the state GOP has scheduled its state political convention (which the parties do every presidential election cycle). The state party couldn't move the convention date at this point because they've invested far too much money in it. That, more than the strain on local governments, was a huge problem.
But it looks like Texas is on the verge of a solution, and here's what it would look like if the judges don't change it:
- Two filing periods, one ending on Dec. 19 and one ending on Feb. 1, 2012, after an interim map is approved. (And by "interim," they mean, "for this cycle only.")
- April 3, 2012 primaries for everyone, from president on down
- June 5, 2012 run-offs