There is an entire Internet subculture devoted to predicting the Oscars. It has its own Vegas odds-makers, like sporting events, and several different blogs devoted to handicapping the ceremony. Hard and fast rules don't work, and even renowned statistician Nate Silver wasn't as good at predicting who got little gold men as he was at predicting how the 2012 election would unfold.
No matter. If you followed my advice last year, you went with a consensus arrived at after several years of obsessive following of pre-Oscar indicators, gut instinct, and a resolution to not take it so seriously. You also got 18 out of 24 categories correct, which is more than enough to win the pool at most offices or Oscar party pools.
This year should be no different if you follow my foolproof guide to the Oscars. These are the winners wrought by the awards season narrative, and I'll be absolutely sure of each one — until a few of them are wrong on Sunday.
Argo has made a late season push to the front of the pack for Best Picture. Hollywood loves itself, so a movie about making movies (sort of) could swoop in and prevent the solid, but straightforward Lincoln from Mitt-Romney-ing its way to victory.
Argo should pick up Editing and Adapted Screenplay awards as well, while Lincoln consoles itself with wins for Daniel Day-Lewis and Tommy Lee Jones performances, and Steven Spielberg's direction. In the other major categories, Jennifer Lawrence wins Best Actress by a nose for Silver Linings Playbook, while Anne Hathaway wins Best Supporting Actress in a landslide (pretty much just for singing the Susan Boyle song from Les Mis, which will also win Sound Mixing for its innovative live-singing production). In a wide-open race, Django Unchained stands poised to take Original Screenplay.
Life of Pi should take a bunch of technical awards for looking pretty — mark it down in cinematography, art direction, visual effects and throw in Best Score as a bonus. Skyfall will become only the third Bond movie to win an Oscar, taking home both Sound Effects Editing and Best Original Song for Adele's titular ballad. Anna Karennina easily wins Best Costumes, and The Hobbit wins makeup for dusting off the hobbit-feet.
That leaves Wreck-It Ralph winning Best Animated Feature, Amour (a Best Picture nominee) easily winning Best Foreign Language Film, Searching For Sugar Man taking Best Documentary, and finally the unpredictable short films. Getting one short film right is a good day: at least Paperman (a partially hand-drawn industry favorite) is a lock for Animated Short. I have gone with Curfew in Live Action Short (it has a cute little kid), and Mondays at Racine (it's about cancer) in Documentary Short.
Without further ado, here's my comprehensive guide to the Academy Awards. Best of luck! And if I'm way off, I promise all of your money back.
Picture: Argo Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables Original Screenplay: Django Unchained Adapted Screenplay:Argo Editing:Argo Cinematography:Life of Pi Score:Life of Pi Song: "Skyfall" by Adele from Skyfall Art Direction:Life of Pi Costumes:Anna Karennina Sound Mixing:Les Miserables Sound Effects Editing:Skyfall Makeup: The Hobbit Visual Effects: Life of Pi Foreign:Amour Animated Feature:Wreck-It Ralph Doc Feature:Searching for Sugar Man Doc Short:Mondays at Racine Animated Short: Paperman Live Short: Curfew
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables, for Best Supporting Actress.
Toothless and Mason Thames in How to Train Your Dragon.
Let’s get it out of the way right at the top: The new live-action How to Train Your Dragon, coming a mere 15 years after the original animated film, serves no real purpose other than to make more money for Universal Pictures and Dreamworks Pictures. However, unlike Disney’s approach toward remaking their animated movies, this attempt manages to succeed on its own merits instead of being a half-baked vessel for nostalgia.
As fans will remember, Hiccup (Mason Thames) lives in Berk, a town on a remote island populated by Vikings who constantly have to defend themselves against rampaging dragons. Hiccup’s dad, Stoick (Gerard Butler), is the community’s vaunted leader, with a legacy that seems impossible for Hiccup to measure up to, especially since he’s stuck in the armory alongside Gobber (Nick Frost).
But Hiccup has a knack for inventions, and his use of one new weapon during a dragon attack takes down a feared Night Fury. Finding the wounded dragon deep in the forest, Hiccup decides against killing it, leading to an unexpected bond between the two of them. Most of the film shows Hiccup trying to prove himself to his townspeople, including the fierce Astrid (Nico Parker), while also nursing the dragon he dubs Toothless back to health with the help of another one of his ingenious creations.
Written and directed by Dean DeBlois (who’s had the same roles on all four HTTYD films), the film is most notable for how engaging it is despite it retelling a story many already know and love. The biggest reason for this is a pivot away from telling a story mainly for kids toward one that feels like an extremely light version of Game of Thrones. Almost right away, there are real stakes for the people in the film, and the way DeBlois and his team stage the scenes, the danger can be felt by the audience.
This sense of “realness” comes through especially well in the scenes between Hiccup and Toothless. The design of Toothless is faithful to the original, but the CGI makes the dragon feel amazingly believable. And when they start flying, the film literally and metaphorically takes off. At multiple points, the camera seems to have trouble keeping them in frame, a smart move toward verisimilitude when the filmmakers clearly could have made it an overly smooth watching experience.
Even though it’s more serious than the original, the film still has plenty of fun to offer. Characters like Gobber (who replaces his two missing limbs with odd contraptions) and the ragtag group of teenagers who come to be in awe of Hiccup’s skills at taming dragons provide more than a few laughs. Hiccup isn’t quite as goofy as he was when voiced by Jay Baruchel, which turns out to be a good thing as his sense of purpose amps up the drama of the story.
Thames’ performance gets better and better as the film goes along, as Hiccup goes from town whipping boy toward hero. He really shines in the last act when he’s given a few scenes that show off his acting range. Parker is equally good, demonstrating the girl power needed for the role, but also the softness of a potential love interest. Butler, the only actor reprising their voice role, is a great presence who sells the outsized personality of Stoick.
Against the odds, this new version of How to Train Your Dragon is equal to the success of the first film, accomplishing the goal of making it feel like you’re watching the story for the first time. If live-action remakes are going to continue to come out, future filmmakers should study this film for how to respect both the history of the franchise and the audience paying good money to be entertained.
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How to Train Your Dragon opens in theaters on June 13.