Get ready for a substantial slowdown in the growth of home construction in Austin and the state’s three other major metro areas.
In a new forecast, the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University expects the percentage growth in home construction to fall from the double digits in 2020 and 2021 to the single digits in 2022 and 2023 for the Austin, San Antonio, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Houston metro areas.
The research center says the number of permits for construction of single-family homes in the Austin area grew 19.4 percent from 2019 to 2020 and should rise 20.8 percent this year versus last year. But the center predicts year-over-year growth in Austin permits will plummet to 5.2 percent in 2022 and 4.8 percent in 2023.
Among the four Texas metros, San Antonio should see the steepest drop in the growth of new construction permits for single-family homes, according to the forecast.
Here’s how the year-over-year numbers look for the state’s three other major metros in terms of growth in construction permits issued for single-family homes:
- 19.9 percent in 2020
- 27.9 percent in 2021
- 5 percent in 2022
- 5.3 percent in 2023
- 25.2 percent in 2020
- 22.5 percent in 2021
- 5.3 percent in 2022
- 5.7 percent in 2023
- 22.2 percent in 2020
- 12.8 percent in 2021
- 6.3 percent in 2022
- 6.5 percent in 2023
“In 2022, new home construction is projected to grow but at a slower rate than the previous two years as the housing market stabilizes,” the research center says in an August news release. “The housing market will move toward a more sustainable long-run path as the pandemic housing market frenzy dissipates.”
The Texas outlook aligns somewhat with current national trends. Across the country, the number of permits for construction of single-family homes declined 6.3 percent from May to June, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. That followed a 1.6 percent decrease from April to May.
“Permits are now lagging [construction] starts, suggesting that homebuilding will slow in the coming months,” the Reuters news service says.