Booming Texas could be the most populated state by 2100, new study finds
Austin might be the nation's third-biggest metro by 2100, and now a new report says Texas could be the most populous state by the next century.
The population study by moving experts MoveBuddha estimates Texas will be home to nearly 96 million people by 2100, which amounts to a 213.8 percent population increase. The Lone Star State will far outshine California, which is currently the most populated state with more than 39 million people, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Texas only crossed the 30 million population milestone in July 2022, so there's still quite some time to get to that near-100 million mark in 77 years.
Overall, the analysis says, Southern states are predicted to grow exponentially by the turn of the next century. Florida will follow right behind Texas as the second most populated state, with an estimated growth of nearly 68.5 million people. California is expected to fall into No. 3, with an estimated population of just under 50.4 million by 2100.
However, just as moveBuddha caveated Austin's local 2100 population estimate with the unknown effects of climate change and a general uncertainty to predict the future, the state-by-state report includes similar warnings.
"We don’t know how climate change will affect migration patterns, and we don’t know the effects of new technologies," the report says. "Many Americans are leaving large cities and cold-weather states for less congested places and warmer climates, especially for the winter months."
Additional factors that might contribute to future migration patterns include housing affordability, lower taxes, and the number of Baby Boomers who decide to retire over the next several decades. And in Texas, specifically, moveBuddha says, the state will have to develop more and better infrastructure to handle the anticipated growth.
"Large Texas metropolitan areas like Dallas, Austin, and Houston will have to build much more infrastructure and combat the same big-city problems like crime and expensive housing that have made Americans move from places like Chicago and New York City," the report says.
According to the report, the top 10 biggest states and their populations by 2100 will be:
- No. 1 – Texas (95,699,438)
- No. 2 – Florida (68,495,750)
- No. 3 – California (50,394,266)
- No. 4 – Georgia (23,904,874)
- No. 5 – North Carolina (23,049,547)
- No. 6 – New York (20,214,987)
- No. 7 – Washington (19,301,336)
- No. 8 – Arizona (18,516,915)
- No. 9 – Colorado (14,640,993)
- No. 10 – Virginia (14,400,363)
Population projections were calculated with Census data between 1910 and 2023, using an annual compound growth rate for all states to estimate the population growth by 2100.
The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.