Rent vs. Income

See how dramatically Austin rents and incomes have changed since 1980

Surprisingly, rents and incomes are growing at the same rate.

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Rents are rising in Austin, but are incomes keeping up? Surprisingly, yes, according to a new national study.

Apartment List analyzed U.S. Census data from 1960-2014 and found that inflation-adjusted rents have risen by 64 percent nationally, but real household incomes only increased by 19 percent.

During the particularly grim first decade of the 21st century, household incomes actually fell by 9 percent, while rents rose by 18 percent. For the total duration of the study, cost-burdened renters nationwide more than doubled, from 24 percent in 1960 to 49 percent in 2014.

"The U.S. renter population is larger than it has ever been (43 million households, or 37 percent of the total population), and nearly half of them are struggling to pay rent," writes Apartment List's director of data science and growth, Andrew Woo.

Austin, however, bucks the trend in the South and Midwest, where rent is up and income is either stagnant or down. Rent and income have risen significantly in the Capital City; both are about 40 percent from where they were in 1980. While rent may be a pricey $1,092 now compared to only $761 then, renters are bringing home $43,634 versus $30,227.

Apartment List points out that while Austin's population has more than doubled since 1980, the city's strong employment growth and attractiveness to millennials have given it the most impressive boost in the country.

Elsewhere in Texas, the scenario mimics the regional trend. In Dallas, incomes were rising steadily until about 2003, when they took a sudden dip and have struggled to recover ever since. Since 1980, rents have increased about 25 percent, from $761 to $948. The median income for renters right now is $38,406, just slightly above the $37,237 it was in 1980.

The numbers are depressing in Houston, too, where rent is up nearly 20 percent ($807 to $940) but income is actually down about 10 percent. A renter would have made about $42,225 in 1980, but now they make only $38,447.

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Homebuyers can afford to be picky as Austin housing inventory rises

Photo by Avinash Kumar on Unsplash

Housing economist Clare Losey said the most significant factor affecting home sales in Austin is high mortgage rates.

The latest real estate report from Unlock MLS and the Austin Board of Realtors (ABoR) has revealed housing inventory is still on a steady rise in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA, creating more choices for potential homebuyers as they navigate a high interest rate market.

Residential home sales dipped by a mere 1.5 percent year-over-year from October 2023, amounting to 2,248 closed sales in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA. Median prices have also dropped to $430,000, or 3.2 percent less than this time last year. More than 3,300 new home listings were added on the market — a 7.4 percent increase from 2023 — bringing the total number of active home listings to 11,599.

According to Unlock MLS and ABoR housing economist Clare Losey, Ph.D., October's mortgage rates stood at 6.4 percent and are showing no signs of a significant drop in the near future. Even heading into 2025, Losey says potential homebuyers who are biding their time in the hopes of seeing rates plummet "may be in for a long wait."

"In the meantime, sellers must recognize that bringing buyers to the table requires a more aggressive pricing approach," Losey said. "Even in a more balanced market, buyers with limited purchasing power are struggling to meet current price expectations."

As for the overall health of the Central Texas housing market, 2024 Unlock MLS and ABoR president Kent Redding labeled recent news reports that called Austin "ground zero" for a downturn as an "extreme over-exaggeration."

"Austin led the state and nation in record-breaking home price growth and sales activity during the pandemic," Redding said. "For three years, near-zero housing inventory, numerous offers above list price and a rapid-paced market raised home prices and left little negotiating power for buyers. During this record-setting growth, ABoR and Unlock MLS consistently emphasized the unsustainability of the rapid growth, and now, our market is working to balance those extremes."

Central Texas housing trends in October 2024

In Travis County, 979 homes were sold last month — a slight 2.5 percent increase from last year. Median prices remained flat year-over-year at $510,000. Active home listings continued growing to 5,702 homes, which is 9.4 percent more year-over-year.

In Williamson County, 807 homes were sold in October, with median prices steadily dropping to $420,000. There were 1,028 new home listings on the market, showing a 4.5 percent increase from October 2023, bringing the total number of active home listings to 3,369.

Residential home sales dropped by nearly eight percent in Hays County in October, totaling 315 sales. Median prices also fell 5.5 percent year-over-year to $359,000. Active listings rose 6.6 percent year-over-year to 1,740 homes with the addition of 534 new listings on the market.

Meanwhile, 114 homes were sold in Bastrop County last month, which is 4.4 percent more than this time last year. Median prices dropped by a single percentage point year-over-year to $355,000. There were 654 active listings on the market in October, and 152 new home listings, representing a 1.3 percent slip in new inventory when compared to last year.

Only 33 homes were sold in Caldwell County in October to reflect a near 14 percent decline year-over-year from October 2023. Median prices fell to $262,990, which was a 13.5 percent decrease from last year. There were 136 active homes on the market last month, and 40 new homes added on the market.

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