Crystal Ball

Austin single-family home prices to decline next year, predicts new report

Austin single-family home prices to decline next year, says new report

Couple buying a house
Austin home prices will fall next year, though not everyone agrees with the prediction. Photo courtesy of Austin Board of Realtors

Homebuyers in the Austin metro area maybe getting some relief in 2020 — though that's a big maybe.

In an outlook published December 4, predicts prices for single-family homes in the Austin metro area will dip 0.2 percent next year compared with this year. The real estate authority also predicts sales growth will trend downward, falling 2.8 percent. 

“As a realtor who serves the Austin real estate market daily, I do not agree with the forecast,” Romeo Manzanilla, incoming 2020 president of the Austin Board of Realtors, tells CultureMap. “Affordability concerns in the Austin metro area will continue to persist in 2020, as Austin’s economy will be fueled by tech and other companies relocating, expanding, or establishing secondary headquarters in Austin. Given the housing shortage and continued demand, median home prices will continue to rise at a conservative rate.”

In November, the median home price in the Austin-Round Rock metro area rose 1.7 percent to $305,000, versus the same time in 2018, according to ABOR. That makes Austin the priciest home market among the four major metro areas in Texas.

Homebuyers in San Antonio, however, are in store for a bit of sticker shock in 2020, according to the forecast. predicts home prices will climb 0.8 percent next year compared with 2019 — the highest price increase on tap among Texas’ four major metro areas.

“We are fortunate in San Antonio that we have remained pretty steady in our price growth over the years while other markets continue to fluctuate,” Grant Lopez, chairman of the San Antonio Board of Realtors, tells CultureMap. “And despite the increase in prices, we are still one of the most affordable housing markets in Texas.”

In October, the median home price in the San Antonio area stood at $235,700, up 6 percent from October 2018, according to the San Antonio Board of Realtors. That’s the lowest median price among the state’s four largest metro areas.

Elsewhere in Texas, homebuyers in the Houston metro area are expected to see a tiny bump in prices next year — 0.2 percent compared with 2019, according to the forecast.

“Overall, I think 2020 will be a good year to be a buyer, and I think sellers will have to reset some expectations depending on their hyperlocal market,” Paige Martin, broker associate and leader of the Houston Properties Team at Keller Williams, tells CultureMap.

In October, the median price for a home in the Houston area reached $239,900, up 2.1 percent from October 2018, the Houston Board of Realtors says.

In Dallas-Fort Worth, foresees home prices declining 0.5 percent in 2020 versus 2019. That would be the biggest drop in home prices among the state’s four major metro areas.

“The North Texas housing market has come off of several record-breaking years,” Cathy Mitchell, president of the MetroTex Association of Realtors, tells CultureMap. “A slight self-correction in the market compared to what we have experienced the last few years was expected and could prove to be beneficial in balancing our market with more quality inventory.”

MetroTex says the median home price in DFW jumped 6 percent to $264,000 in October compared with the same time in 2018.

Overall, the forecast indicates median home prices will stay relatively steady across the state’s four biggest metro areas in 2020 — and will stay well below prices in a number of East Coast and West Coast markets, particularly big metro areas in Northern and Southern California.

“Cities in Arizona, Nevada, and Texas will continue to benefit from shoppers looking for more affordable alternatives to California,” says George Ratiu, senior economist at