At the top for rooftops

Austin suburb raises the roof with biggest housing boom in the nation

Kyle is one of several cities in Hays County that's experienced tremendous housing growth.

If you live in or have driven through Hays County, your eyes aren’t deceiving you. You’ve seen thousands of new residential rooftops pop up in the past decade.

In fact, Hays County ranks as the primary U.S. metro county with the most growth in new housing units (57.4 percent) from 2010 to 2020, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released November 2. Among those housing units are single-family homes, condos, townhomes, and apartments.

The number of housing units in Hays County rose by 34,117 from 2010 to 2020, the Census Bureau says.

One of the Austin metro area’s four other counties makes the top 10 on that list, too.

Williamson County saw the number of housing units shoot up by 46 percent from 2010 to 2020, the Census Bureau says. Among primary metro counties in the U.S., Williamson ranks fifth in that regard. Williamson County added 74,907 housing units during the 10-year period.

Three other Texas counties show up in the top 10 among primary metro counties:

Third-ranked Comal County, part of the San Antonio metro area — 48.5 percent (22,831 new housing units).
Seventh-ranked Fort Bend County, part of the Houston metro area — 41 percent (80,880 new housing units).
10th-ranked Rockwall County, part of the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area — 36.8 percent (10,280 new housing units).

The Austin metro area also claims one spot on the bureau’s list of the 10 “outlying” metro counties with the most growth in housing units from 2010 to 2020. The bureau defines outlying counties as those outside a region’s “urban center.”

Bastrop County, ranked eighth on that list, saw the number of housing units go up 25.1 percent from 2010 to 2020 with the addition of 7,367 units.

Four other Texas counties appear on the same list for “outlying” counties:

No. 1 Denton County, part of the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area — 36 percent (92,136 new housing units).
No. 2 Montgomery County, part of the Houston metro area — 34.2 percent (60,842 new housing units).
No. 3 Kaufman County, part of the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area — 33.7 percent (12,906 new units).
No. 5 Kendall County, part of the San Antonio metro area — 30.4 percent (4,275 new housing units).

“The number of occupied housing units grows when new housing is built or previously vacant homes become occupied. It decreases when housing units become vacant, are demolished or are converted into other uses,” the Census Bureau explains.

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Homebuyers can afford to be picky as Austin housing inventory rises

Photo by Avinash Kumar on Unsplash

Housing economist Clare Losey said the most significant factor affecting home sales in Austin is high mortgage rates.

The latest real estate report from Unlock MLS and the Austin Board of Realtors (ABoR) has revealed housing inventory is still on a steady rise in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA, creating more choices for potential homebuyers as they navigate a high interest rate market.

Residential home sales dipped by a mere 1.5 percent year-over-year from October 2023, amounting to 2,248 closed sales in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA. Median prices have also dropped to $430,000, or 3.2 percent less than this time last year. More than 3,300 new home listings were added on the market — a 7.4 percent increase from 2023 — bringing the total number of active home listings to 11,599.

According to Unlock MLS and ABoR housing economist Clare Losey, Ph.D., October's mortgage rates stood at 6.4 percent and are showing no signs of a significant drop in the near future. Even heading into 2025, Losey says potential homebuyers who are biding their time in the hopes of seeing rates plummet "may be in for a long wait."

"In the meantime, sellers must recognize that bringing buyers to the table requires a more aggressive pricing approach," Losey said. "Even in a more balanced market, buyers with limited purchasing power are struggling to meet current price expectations."

As for the overall health of the Central Texas housing market, 2024 Unlock MLS and ABoR president Kent Redding labeled recent news reports that called Austin "ground zero" for a downturn as an "extreme over-exaggeration."

"Austin led the state and nation in record-breaking home price growth and sales activity during the pandemic," Redding said. "For three years, near-zero housing inventory, numerous offers above list price and a rapid-paced market raised home prices and left little negotiating power for buyers. During this record-setting growth, ABoR and Unlock MLS consistently emphasized the unsustainability of the rapid growth, and now, our market is working to balance those extremes."

Central Texas housing trends in October 2024

In Travis County, 979 homes were sold last month — a slight 2.5 percent increase from last year. Median prices remained flat year-over-year at $510,000. Active home listings continued growing to 5,702 homes, which is 9.4 percent more year-over-year.

In Williamson County, 807 homes were sold in October, with median prices steadily dropping to $420,000. There were 1,028 new home listings on the market, showing a 4.5 percent increase from October 2023, bringing the total number of active home listings to 3,369.

Residential home sales dropped by nearly eight percent in Hays County in October, totaling 315 sales. Median prices also fell 5.5 percent year-over-year to $359,000. Active listings rose 6.6 percent year-over-year to 1,740 homes with the addition of 534 new listings on the market.

Meanwhile, 114 homes were sold in Bastrop County last month, which is 4.4 percent more than this time last year. Median prices dropped by a single percentage point year-over-year to $355,000. There were 654 active listings on the market in October, and 152 new home listings, representing a 1.3 percent slip in new inventory when compared to last year.

Only 33 homes were sold in Caldwell County in October to reflect a near 14 percent decline year-over-year from October 2023. Median prices fell to $262,990, which was a 13.5 percent decrease from last year. There were 136 active homes on the market last month, and 40 new homes added on the market.

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