Real Estate Report

A crazy number of people are moving to Texas says new report

Austin downtown skyline bats Congress Bridge

Folks are flocking to Texas.

Think everyone's moving to Texas? You're right. A new report from the Texas Association of Realtors says that the Lone Star State ranked second in the nation for relocation activity in 2015, behind only Florida.

Texas experienced a net gain of 107,689 out-of-state residents in 2015, a 4 percent increase from 2014, says the report.

“The diverse job opportunities and high quality of life in Texas continue to drive in-state and out-of-state migration to Texas cities and counties, both big and small,” says Vicki Fullerton, 2017 chairman of the association, in a release. “This is the third consecutive year that Texas has gained more than 500,000 new residents from out of state.”

In 2015, a whopping 553,032 folks migrated to Texas from out of state, an increase of 2.8 percent year-over-year. The highest number of new Texans came from California, followed by Florida, Louisiana, New York, and Oklahoma. At the same time, however, 445,343 Texans left the state for greener pastures. And where'd they go? California, Florida, Oklahoma, Colorado, and Louisiana.

The report also drills down to the metro level, showing that Dallas-Fort Worth had the most new out-of-state residents: 117,982. Houston followed with 101,604, and Austin-Round Rock was third with 46,598. At the county level, Harris picked up the most new out-of-state residents, followed by Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, and Travis. Maybe it's time to stop complaining about all those new Austinites.

It turns out that Houston and Dallas were responsible for the largest number of Texas residents moving to and from Austin. The same can be said for Los Angeles and New York regarding out-of-state moves. Here's a breakdown of who's moving to Austin:

Top five Texas metros moving to Austin:

Houston
Dallas-Fort Worth
San Antonio
Killeen
College Station

Top five out-of-state metros moving to Austin:

Los Angeles
New York
Chicago
Washington
Phoenix

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Homebuyers can afford to be picky as Austin housing inventory rises

Photo by Avinash Kumar on Unsplash

Housing economist Clare Losey said the most significant factor affecting home sales in Austin is high mortgage rates.

The latest real estate report from Unlock MLS and the Austin Board of Realtors (ABoR) has revealed housing inventory is still on a steady rise in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA, creating more choices for potential homebuyers as they navigate a high interest rate market.

Residential home sales dipped by a mere 1.5 percent year-over-year from October 2023, amounting to 2,248 closed sales in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA. Median prices have also dropped to $430,000, or 3.2 percent less than this time last year. More than 3,300 new home listings were added on the market — a 7.4 percent increase from 2023 — bringing the total number of active home listings to 11,599.

According to Unlock MLS and ABoR housing economist Clare Losey, Ph.D., October's mortgage rates stood at 6.4 percent and are showing no signs of a significant drop in the near future. Even heading into 2025, Losey says potential homebuyers who are biding their time in the hopes of seeing rates plummet "may be in for a long wait."

"In the meantime, sellers must recognize that bringing buyers to the table requires a more aggressive pricing approach," Losey said. "Even in a more balanced market, buyers with limited purchasing power are struggling to meet current price expectations."

As for the overall health of the Central Texas housing market, 2024 Unlock MLS and ABoR president Kent Redding labeled recent news reports that called Austin "ground zero" for a downturn as an "extreme over-exaggeration."

"Austin led the state and nation in record-breaking home price growth and sales activity during the pandemic," Redding said. "For three years, near-zero housing inventory, numerous offers above list price and a rapid-paced market raised home prices and left little negotiating power for buyers. During this record-setting growth, ABoR and Unlock MLS consistently emphasized the unsustainability of the rapid growth, and now, our market is working to balance those extremes."

Central Texas housing trends in October 2024

In Travis County, 979 homes were sold last month — a slight 2.5 percent increase from last year. Median prices remained flat year-over-year at $510,000. Active home listings continued growing to 5,702 homes, which is 9.4 percent more year-over-year.

In Williamson County, 807 homes were sold in October, with median prices steadily dropping to $420,000. There were 1,028 new home listings on the market, showing a 4.5 percent increase from October 2023, bringing the total number of active home listings to 3,369.

Residential home sales dropped by nearly eight percent in Hays County in October, totaling 315 sales. Median prices also fell 5.5 percent year-over-year to $359,000. Active listings rose 6.6 percent year-over-year to 1,740 homes with the addition of 534 new listings on the market.

Meanwhile, 114 homes were sold in Bastrop County last month, which is 4.4 percent more than this time last year. Median prices dropped by a single percentage point year-over-year to $355,000. There were 654 active listings on the market in October, and 152 new home listings, representing a 1.3 percent slip in new inventory when compared to last year.

Only 33 homes were sold in Caldwell County in October to reflect a near 14 percent decline year-over-year from October 2023. Median prices fell to $262,990, which was a 13.5 percent decrease from last year. There were 136 active homes on the market last month, and 40 new homes added on the market.

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