There is an entire Internet subculture devoted to predicting the Oscars. It has its own Vegas odds-makers, like sporting events, and several different blogs devoted to handicapping the ceremony. Hard and fast rules don't work, and even renowned statistician Nate Silver wasn't as good at predicting who got little gold men as he was at predicting how the 2012 election would unfold.
No matter. If you followed my advice last year, you went with a consensus arrived at after several years of obsessive following of pre-Oscar indicators, gut instinct, and a resolution to not take it so seriously. You also got 18 out of 24 categories correct, which is more than enough to win the pool at most offices or Oscar party pools.
This year should be no different if you follow my foolproof guide to the Oscars. These are the winners wrought by the awards season narrative, and I'll be absolutely sure of each one — until a few of them are wrong on Sunday.
Argo has made a late season push to the front of the pack for Best Picture. Hollywood loves itself, so a movie about making movies (sort of) could swoop in and prevent the solid, but straightforward Lincoln from Mitt-Romney-ing its way to victory.
Argo should pick up Editing and Adapted Screenplay awards as well, while Lincoln consoles itself with wins for Daniel Day-Lewis and Tommy Lee Jones performances, and Steven Spielberg's direction. In the other major categories, Jennifer Lawrence wins Best Actress by a nose for Silver Linings Playbook, while Anne Hathaway wins Best Supporting Actress in a landslide (pretty much just for singing the Susan Boyle song from Les Mis, which will also win Sound Mixing for its innovative live-singing production). In a wide-open race, Django Unchained stands poised to take Original Screenplay.
Life of Pi should take a bunch of technical awards for looking pretty — mark it down in cinematography, art direction, visual effects and throw in Best Score as a bonus. Skyfall will become only the third Bond movie to win an Oscar, taking home both Sound Effects Editing and Best Original Song for Adele's titular ballad. Anna Karennina easily wins Best Costumes, and The Hobbit wins makeup for dusting off the hobbit-feet.
That leaves Wreck-It Ralph winning Best Animated Feature, Amour (a Best Picture nominee) easily winning Best Foreign Language Film, Searching For Sugar Man taking Best Documentary, and finally the unpredictable short films. Getting one short film right is a good day: at least Paperman (a partially hand-drawn industry favorite) is a lock for Animated Short. I have gone with Curfew in Live Action Short (it has a cute little kid), and Mondays at Racine (it's about cancer) in Documentary Short.
Without further ado, here's my comprehensive guide to the Academy Awards. Best of luck! And if I'm way off, I promise all of your money back.
Picture: Argo Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables Original Screenplay: Django Unchained Adapted Screenplay:Argo Editing:Argo Cinematography:Life of Pi Score:Life of Pi Song: "Skyfall" by Adele from Skyfall Art Direction:Life of Pi Costumes:Anna Karennina Sound Mixing:Les Miserables Sound Effects Editing:Skyfall Makeup: The Hobbit Visual Effects: Life of Pi Foreign:Amour Animated Feature:Wreck-It Ralph Doc Feature:Searching for Sugar Man Doc Short:Mondays at Racine Animated Short: Paperman Live Short: Curfew
Django Unchained is poised to take Original Screenplay.
Photo courtesy of The Weinstein Company
Django Unchained is poised to take Original Screenplay.
Mikey Madison and Jeremy Allen White in The Social Reckoning.
The 2010 film The Social Network — about the early years of Facebook after Mark Zuckerberg created the social media site — was a landmark movie in many ways. But given the time it was made, just four years after it went public beyond colleges, the impact Facebook had on society was minimal compared to what it is today. (The film’s tagline references 500 million users on Facebook; there are now more than 3 billion).
All of which is to say that there's plenty of fertile material for a follow-up film to explore, which writer/director Aaron Sorkin does quite well in The Social Reckoning. Zuckerberg (played this time by Jeremy Strong) is an important but supporting character in this story, which focuses on Wall Street Journal investigative reporter Jeff Horwitz (Jeremy Allen White). Horwitz is in pursuit of anyone willing to spill dirt on the inner workings of Facebook, which leads him to Frances Haugen (Mikey Madison), who works on the Civic Integrity team at the now-giant company.
At first reluctant to disclose much, Haugen gradually gives Horwitz access to internal files that show that Facebook engaged in behind-the-scenes work to boost engagement on the site with little regard for how it would affect the well-being of its users. Their story, which takes place over the course of two years between 2019 and 2021, is intercut with scenes in which Zuckerberg is being prepped for testimony before Congress by Raya (Wunmi Mosaku), Charlie (Bill Burr), and others.
The key to Sorkin’s success in Hollywood has always been his fast-paced, overlapping dialogue, and there’s much of it to enjoy in this film. Most of the film is just people talking in rooms, so the script needs to have Sorkin’s signature style to keep the story compelling. He achieves that goal through lines that indicate the righteous indignation, quirks, and sense of humor of the characters, feelings that easily translate over to the audience.
Sorkin is clearly on one side in his storytelling, and it’s not the side that doesn’t seem to care that its users are being harmed by its product. Sorkin gilds the lily multiple times throughout the film in big and small ways, and your enjoyment of the movie may lie in your ability to roll with his choices instead of nitpicking details (like the fact that Zuckerberg didn’t testify before Congress in the crucial year depicted in the film).
Still, there’s the unshakeable feeling that the movie is too little, too late. Even though it’s set just 5-7 years ago, the advances in technology and the division of the country in the time since make it feel like a completely different world. The Social Network had the advantage of showing things that most viewers didn’t know well. The basics of this film played out in headlines around the world, and the issues the characters debate in it seem positively quaint compared to what’s happening now.
White has been hit-and-miss as a movie actor, but he’s in his sweet spot in this film, rattling off lines with ease and making Horwitz alternately cocky and empathetic. Madison does well in her first film since winning an Oscar for Anora, playing on Haugen’s passion and eccentricities effectively. Strong plays Zuckerberg as literally stiff — his neck and body movements are almost mechanical — a choice that works for the most part.
The Social Reckoning is not as good as The Social Network, but it manages to be gripping in its own way. Through Sorkin’s writing, better directing than he has delivered in other films, and committed performances by all of the actors, it becomes a story worth telling, even if its ideas have become antiquated.
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The Social Reckoning opens in theaters on October 9.