There is an entire Internet subculture devoted to predicting the Oscars. It has its own Vegas odds-makers, like sporting events, and several different blogs devoted to handicapping the ceremony. Hard and fast rules don't work, and even renowned statistician Nate Silver wasn't as good at predicting who got little gold men as he was at predicting how the 2012 election would unfold.
No matter. If you followed my advice last year, you went with a consensus arrived at after several years of obsessive following of pre-Oscar indicators, gut instinct, and a resolution to not take it so seriously. You also got 18 out of 24 categories correct, which is more than enough to win the pool at most offices or Oscar party pools.
This year should be no different if you follow my foolproof guide to the Oscars. These are the winners wrought by the awards season narrative, and I'll be absolutely sure of each one — until a few of them are wrong on Sunday.
Argo has made a late season push to the front of the pack for Best Picture. Hollywood loves itself, so a movie about making movies (sort of) could swoop in and prevent the solid, but straightforward Lincoln from Mitt-Romney-ing its way to victory.
Argo should pick up Editing and Adapted Screenplay awards as well, while Lincoln consoles itself with wins for Daniel Day-Lewis and Tommy Lee Jones performances, and Steven Spielberg's direction. In the other major categories, Jennifer Lawrence wins Best Actress by a nose for Silver Linings Playbook, while Anne Hathaway wins Best Supporting Actress in a landslide (pretty much just for singing the Susan Boyle song from Les Mis, which will also win Sound Mixing for its innovative live-singing production). In a wide-open race, Django Unchained stands poised to take Original Screenplay.
Life of Pi should take a bunch of technical awards for looking pretty — mark it down in cinematography, art direction, visual effects and throw in Best Score as a bonus. Skyfall will become only the third Bond movie to win an Oscar, taking home both Sound Effects Editing and Best Original Song for Adele's titular ballad. Anna Karennina easily wins Best Costumes, and The Hobbit wins makeup for dusting off the hobbit-feet.
That leaves Wreck-It Ralph winning Best Animated Feature, Amour (a Best Picture nominee) easily winning Best Foreign Language Film, Searching For Sugar Man taking Best Documentary, and finally the unpredictable short films. Getting one short film right is a good day: at least Paperman (a partially hand-drawn industry favorite) is a lock for Animated Short. I have gone with Curfew in Live Action Short (it has a cute little kid), and Mondays at Racine (it's about cancer) in Documentary Short.
Without further ado, here's my comprehensive guide to the Academy Awards. Best of luck! And if I'm way off, I promise all of your money back.
Picture: Argo Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables Original Screenplay: Django Unchained Adapted Screenplay:Argo Editing:Argo Cinematography:Life of Pi Score:Life of Pi Song: "Skyfall" by Adele from Skyfall Art Direction:Life of Pi Costumes:Anna Karennina Sound Mixing:Les Miserables Sound Effects Editing:Skyfall Makeup: The Hobbit Visual Effects: Life of Pi Foreign:Amour Animated Feature:Wreck-It Ralph Doc Feature:Searching for Sugar Man Doc Short:Mondays at Racine Animated Short: Paperman Live Short: Curfew
Django Unchained is poised to take Original Screenplay.
Photo courtesy of The Weinstein Company
Django Unchained is poised to take Original Screenplay.
Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr, Majid Panahi, and Hadis Pakbaten in It Was Just an Accident.
American filmmakers, for the most part, enjoy luxury and freedoms when making movies in the United States that filmmakers in other countries could only dream of. Not only does Iranian writer/director Jafar Panahi not have millions of dollars with which to make his films, he also has to deal with a government that has previously arrested him for being critical of their policies.
And yet he persists, returning to the screen with the taut It Was Just An Accident. The film begins with a kind of misdirect, showing Eghbal (Ebrahim Azizi) and his family driving home at night, during which they strike and kill a dog. That accident sends Eghbal into the orbit of Vahid (Vahid Mobasseri), who works at a business that helps repair Eghbal’s car.
Recognizing the distinctive sound of Eghbal’s prosthetic leg, Vahid believes him to be the same man who kidnapped and tortured him and others in a recent government arrest spree. Desperate to confirm his suspicions, Vahid kidnaps Eghbal and takes him to a series of people who were also imprisoned under the man they named “Peg Leg,” including Shiva (Mariam Afshari), a wedding photographer; Golrokh (Hadis Pakbaten), the bride being photographed; and more.
Most filmmakers have the ability to use sets and take as much time as they need — within reason — to get the shot they need. Panahi employs a type of guerrilla filmmaking rarely seen these days, stealing shots in broad daylight while trying not to gain the notice of Iranian authorities. The daring nature of the making of the movie infuses the story with an extra tension that elevates what is otherwise a relatively simple story.
The film puts the audience directly in the shoes of the various characters as each of them wrestles with the complicated feelings arising from their actions. As they were all blindfolded while imprisoned, they can’t be 100 percent sure they have the right man, and debates/arguments between the characters keep viewers guessing as to who he is and what they will do with him. Even if he is who they think he is, will enacting some kind of revenge on him soothe their consciences?
Through it all, the idea that a former political prisoner is making a film about former political prisoners who are engaging in conduct that could get them arrested again — just as Panahi is doing with his film — makes this meta filmmaking on another level. The simplicity of the story belies the complexity underscoring the entire film, and it delivers one of the most impactful endings of any recent movie.
While a few of the actors have acted before, including in previous Panahi films, most of them are making their first appearance in a movie. Despite this lack of experience, each of them does well, especially Mobasseri and Afshari, who share a number of heated scenes that bring out the best in both of them.
It Was Just an Accident is the type of film that constantly keeps the audience on their collective toes, never knowing where it will head next. And that’s even if you didn’t know the details of how and why it was made; once that is discovered, it becomes something much deeper and more important than most other movies that will be released in 2025.
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It Was Just an Accident is now playing in select theaters.