People certainly haven't stopped moving to Austin, but the flow of newbies to Texas has slowed down significantly — including in the capital city.
That's according to real estate platform Redfin, which released a study based on U.S. census data in April detailing changes in net domestic migration — i.e. the amount a population rose or fell due to people moving from other parts of the country — in the country's 50 most populous metros in 2024. It noted that Texas, Florida, and other parts of the so-called Sun Belt were the hardest hit in comparison to prior years.
Despite maintaining the largest proportion of its inflow out of all major Texas cities, Austin still had an inflow of 8,239 fewer people than it did in 2023. Austin gained a net total of 13,980 people during 2024, compared to 22,219 in 2023. That's about a 37 percent decrease.
Some similar studies note that people who would be moving to Austin — or people who already live in Austin — are opting for a life in the more affordable and laid-back suburbs like Hutto, Georgetown, and Manor. Some suburbs like Round Rock are particularly good at drawing newcomers for whom money isn't a top concern. Either way, the suburb is becoming a heavyweight for Texans.
The Redfin study echoes the economic impetus and attributes some of the spike and drop in population growth to pandemic prices.
"Although the cost of buying or renting a home in much of Florida and Texas is now flattening out or falling, it rose rapidly during the pandemic, when migration into those states skyrocketed," the study says. "Places like Tampa, Dallas and Austin were once seen as affordable alternatives to high-cost cities like San Francisco and New York, but now the gap in housing costs between big-city job centers and Sun Belt metros has shrunk."
Other concerns it lists for both Texas and Florida include a return to working in big-city offices; natural disasters raising insurance premiums; and a high cost of living paired with economic uncertainty, influencing people to say in their current homes. It even cites competition from more affordable places. Even though Texas is often considered fairly bargain friendly, there's often a cheaper option than its bigger cities; the report offers Minneapolis and Indianapolis as an alternative to Miami or Austin.
Here's how other Texas metros stack up:
Dallas gained 35,229 people in 2023 and only 12,927 in 2024. That's a reduction of 22,302, more than half of the 2023 figure. Houston saw an inflow of 39,461 movers in 2023 and 21,240 in 2024. That leaves a reduction of 18,221, slightly less than half.
Next up was San Antonio, which gained 30,103 people in 2023 and 18,981 in 2024, resulting in a comparative loss of 11,122. Finally, Fort Worth gained a relatively small set of 21,180 movers in 2023, which dropped to 11,623 in 2024; a decrease of 9,557.
On the other side of the spectrum, some metros are just doing especially well at holding onto its residents, the report points out. New York's outflow shrank the most out of any other metro. Los Angeles followed. A decreased outflow for these cities is still a loss, just like a decreased inflow across Texas is still a gain — but it looks like the gap is closing slower now.
The top 10 metros where net domestic migration fell most in 2024 are:
- Tampa, Florida
- Dallas, Texas
- Atlanta, Georgia
- Houston, Texas
- Miami, Florida
- Orlando, Florida
- Fort Lauderdale, Florida
- San Antonio, Texas
- Fort Worth, Texas
- Austin, Texas
