The March Madness that is SXSW is every bit as exciting as the March Madness that is the NCAA basketball tournament. And now, they both have brackets to determine the winners. Yesterday, we broke down the first round in our quest to crown a champion of SXSW hype. Today, let’s see how the rest of the tournament plays out.

Second Round

The Local Conference:

The Black Angels (1)
Quiet Company (8)

It’s an issue of momentum here — the Black Angels are one of the highest-profile Austin acts of the past few years, but they haven’t put out a record since 2010. Quiet Company, on the other hand, has been steadily gaining in stature since the release of its breakout We Are All Where We Belong late last fall. With Quiet Company scheduled for some high-profile SXSW gigs — including the opening night party at The Main (in the old downtown Emo’s building) and the Austin Music Awards — they’ve got the juice to knock off the top seed in an upset.

Sleep∞Over (5)
Pure X (4)

Sleep∞Over and Pure X are two peas in a pod — or in a van, when they’re out on the road together as tourmates, as they were in Europe last fall. Both are proponents of dreamy, stoner-flecked waves of shoegaze guitar. In short, it’s hard to pick a winner — but Pure X has been at it a little longer, so they’ve probably got a slightly larger fanbase. They’d win this one 51 times out of 100, and that’ll put them in the Round of 16.

Mother Falcon (11)
Gary Clark Jr. (3)

Mother Falcon is backing Christopher Cross at the Austin Music Hall, because — er, sure they are. Gary Clark Jr. gets backed by the Roots. Mother Falcon’s a great band on an interesting trip, but Clark’s poised to be a major national draw for years to come, and he’ll take the round easily.

SPEAK (10)
The Sword (2)

Austin’s never really established itself as a metal town, which makes the fact that The Sword are beloved internationally all the more impressive. And those words – “beloved internationally” — are why they get the nod over SPEAK, who are an odds-on favorite to be relevant on an ever-increasing scale for years to come. But they’re not there yet, so The Sword get the win.

The Rising Conference:

Skrillex (1)
Robert Glasper (8)

The Robert Glasper Experiment — as the jazz pianist’s performing and recording project is formally known — put out a record this month that’s sure to land on Pazz and Jop year-end lists. But he’s not bringing the impressive list of guest artists on his new Black Radio to the Elephant Room (though maybe SXSW-attendee Erykah Badu will drop in). Skrillex has a strong chance to win the whole tournament, meanwhile, and after his last time in Austin — for a packed set at the ACL Festival — he’s one of the biggest draws at SXSW.

We Are Augustines (5)
Kendrick Lamar (4)

Before Kendrick Lamar signed to Interscope today, the Brooklyn rockers in We Are Augustines could have pulled the upset. But with the extra boost Lamar’s going to get with the major label deal in place, odds are he’ll be blowing up SXSW this week.

The Heavy (6)
Radiation City (14)

Radiation City pulled off a stunning upset of Das Racist last round based on the strength of last year’s The Hand That Takes You. That won’t be enough to take The Heavy, who are making a rare Texas appearance after years of picking up fans through soundtrack, commercial, and — ugh, Republican Presidential campaign rally — appearances. Years of anticipation finally get to pay off, and that gives them the round.

Alabama Shakes (7)
A$AP Rocky (2)

As massive as the hype around A$AP Rocky is right now — check out his headlining gig at Mess With Texas and a performance at the MTVu Woodie Awards — the endorsements Alabama Shakes are carrying with them from Adele, Jack White, and others give them the edge here. Both acts are going to be huge this year, but the sky is the limit for Alabama Shakes, while mixtape heroes like A$AP don’t always justify their buzz.

The Comeback Conference:

Fiona Apple (1)
Van Hunt (9)

Van Hunt might be poised for a comeback, but Fiona Apple doesn’t even need one — her fans have been eagerly awaiting news of more shows and an album for years. Fiona Apple takes it in a walk.

What Made Milwaukee Famous (12)
Crystal Method (4)

Crystal Method’s performance is going to get people dancing, but it’s not likely to return the electronic duo to its 1997 high point. What Made Milwaukee Famous have a better chance of building some momentum that’ll pay off in some career resurrection after their showcase/day show doubleheader.

Thomas Dolby (6)
Alice Smith (14)

If Alice Smith had announced a new album, she might be a sleeper for a SXSW comeback. As good as she is, though, the odds are better that Thomas Dolby is going to get some of that elder statesman cred, so he takes the round.

Free Energy (7)
Counting Crows (2)

Free Energy is playing a headlining slot at The Jr., and an early evening slot at The ND — not bad gigs, but not really competitive with Counting Crows’ headlining slot at Auditorium Shores.

The Established Conference:

Bruce Springsteen (1)
T.I. (8)

It’s going to be awfully hard to take out The Boss at SXSW. T.I.’s La Zona Rosa set is likely to be the highlight of a night that’s already pretty stacked, with Wale, Curren$y, and B.O.B. sharing the bill, but the line of people hoping to catch a glimpse of Bruuuuuuuuce is going to be overwhelming.

Nas (5)
Sharon Van Etten (13)

Details are scarce when it comes to Nas’ SXSW gigs — the venues, the times, the dates, and even if he’ll actually be performing and not just hosting are all up in the air. The uncertainty around his showcases hurts him, since who knows if he’ll even be rapping? The fact that Sharon Van Etten’s got two major showcases scheduled — one headlining the Mohawk on Thursday, and one following Fiona Apple for the killer Stubb’s showcase on Wednesday night — gives her the upset.

Of Montreal (11)
Santigold (3)

Of Montreal have a whopping five day shows scheduled, which means they’re looking to capitalize on SXSW. Santigold doesn’t need that sort of promotion, though, given how hotly anticipated her new material is, and she’ll take the round.

M. Ward (7)
Jack White (2)

Hard not to give it to Jack White, when the announcement that he’d be showing up to The Stage On Sixth immediately generated national news. M. Ward’s a big draw, but he probably wouldn’t get that same sort of attention. Give this one to Jack.

The Sweet Sixteen

The Local Conference:

Quiet Company (8)
Pure X (4)

Quiet Company’s rise is inspiring — and they’ve got a good chance of being the next “local band makes good” story — but Pure X have a unique approach to being an Austin band, treating the city as a tour stop and making every performance an event. That extends to SXSW, too, where the band’s eschewing the day shows and multiple showcases for a lone appearance at Barbarella. Quiet Company’s three day shows and three showcases might oversaturate the market -- that’s something Pure X isn’t in danger of, and they’ll take the round.

Gary Clark Jr. (3)
The Sword (2)

There aren’t a lot of locals with both the national cache to keep up with The Sword and a steady stream of rising momentum — Gary Clark Jr. fits that bill, though, and he’s likely to have a bigger year than even Austin’s favorite metal dudes.

The Rising Conference:

Skrillex (1)
Kendrick Lamar (4)

Skrillex is coasting on a huge year — but there’s also reason to believe that he’s about as big as he’s going to get. That’s bigger than a lot of SXSW acts, but Kendrick Lamar, new record deal in hand and a “most likely to succeed” from last year’s Freshman List paying off, looks like the sky’s the limit at the moment. If anybody is going to upset the dubstep titan, it’ll be Kendrick Lamar.

The Heavy (6)
Alabama Shakes (7)

The Heavy and Alabama Shakes have a lot in common — they’re both soulful, rock-flecked bands that are destined for big things. But The Heavy might have maxed things out with the ubiquity of “How You Like Me Now,” while Alabama Shakes could own 2012 if things fall right. They’ll take it on their potential.

The Comeback Conference:

Fiona Apple (1)
What Made Milwaukee Famous (12)

This one’s a mismatch — What Made Milwaukee Famous have potential, but they’re not really on Fiona Apple’s level.

Thomas Dolby (6)
Counting Crows (2)

Dolby might get the “elder statesman” boost, but they’re not going to play to ten thousand people at Auditorium Shores. Counting Crows blind him with science in an easy one.

The Established Conference:

Bruce Springsteen (1)
Sharon Van Etten (13)

It’s a tougher matchup for The Boss than it looks like: on the shortlist of artists who are likely to have a huge 2012, Sharon Van Etten is right at the top, and her SXSW appearances are going to be a big part of that. If Springsteen weren’t playing a once-in-a-lifetime intimate showcase that’ll go down in SXSW lore, she could have this round. As it is, she’s knocked out in a tight one.

Santigold (3)
Jack White (2)

As exciting as Santi’s performances are going to be, she doesn’t have the longstanding appeal of Jack White — combined with the novelty of debuting long-awaited solo material at a venue with a capacity of around a thousand people. Santigold’s set up for a big SXSW, but not as big as Jack White’s.

The Elite Eight

The Local Conference:

Pure X (4)
Gary Clark Jr. (3)

At this point, Gary Clark Jr. is looking pretty unstoppable — he’s avoided watering down his cool by oversaturating Austin, and he’s got the backing of Warner to try to break him worldwide. Pure X has a lot of underground cred, but it’s not going to be enough to put them over Clark.

The Rising Conference:

Kendrick Lamar (4)
Alabama Shakes (7)

It’s been a good run for Alabama Shakes in the tournament, and as big as their year might end up being, it’s probably not going to top Kendrick Lamar’s. Both of them should have enormous SXSW shows, but Lamar is poised to be a megastar. He could be on SXSW alumni lists for years to come.

The Comeback Conference:

Fiona Apple (1)
Counting Crows (2)

Counting Crows have massive hits — you can hear their songs in the supermarket, and they’ve never gotten the credit they deserve for the quality of their songwriting. They’re a crackerjack live act, and your parents can sing along to some of their hits. All of that’s true of Fiona Apple, too, plus she’s got the vaunted indie cred that Counting Crows lack. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, and her occasional disappearances from music haven’t done anything but make people want her to come back even more. That’ll be enough to take her to the Final Four.

The Established Conference:

Bruce Springsteen (1)
Jack White (2)

Both Springsteen and Jack White are going to have massive lines for their showcases — but the people lining up for The Boss are going to know they can’t get in, and stand in line anyway. That alone is enough to give him the round.

The Final Four

Gary Clark Jr. (3)
Kendrick Lamar (4)

Gary Clark Jr. might well be Austin’s most promising young talent. But SXSW is an international event that takes place in Austin. Our local acts are more than capable of competing on that stage, but that doesn’t mean they’ll always win. Kendrick Lamar’s jazz-tinged hip-hop is looking to be a more dominant part of 2012 than the dirty, blues-y indie rock of Gary Clark Jr., and his SXSW is going to be a bigger deal outside of town than Clark’s. It’s a close one, but Lamar gets it.

Fiona Apple (1)
Bruce Springsteen (1)

There aren’t really many competitors for Springsteen’s SXSW crown. But there’s at least one, and she’s got one thing that The Boss lacks — scarcity. Bruce Springsteen plays countless shows every year, but Fiona Apple takes years-long hiatuses from performing and recording. The fact that she’s playing SXSW is a huge deal — her limited upcoming tour dates all sold out immediately, and there’s always a possibility with an artist like her that each tour might be her last. Springsteen’s long-term consistency actually works against him here: as amazing as an intimate concert from The E Street Band is going to be, it doesn’t carry quote the same cache right now that catching an extremely rare live appearance from Fiona Apple does. Few artists could knock off The Boss, but Fiona Apple, with her combination of mainstream success and indie cred, is SXSW catnip.

The Championship Round

Kendrick Lamar (4)
Fiona Apple (1)

It’s a tale as old as time — or at least since SXSW started being a massive event that captured the entire world’s attention for a week each March: the rising star looking to establish himself as the Next Big Thing versus the beloved indie icon ready to reestablish herself as a cultural force. Both Lamar and Apple are going to come away from SXSW as huge winners, that much is certain. But if you have to pick one artist who’s likely to come away from Austin on top of the world, it’s probably going to be Fiona Apple — Kendrick Lamar’s career has all the promise in the world, but there’s still a chance he won’t deliver on it. Hers, on the other hand, seems to blow up every time she takes enough of an interest in music to actually perform and record it. Since that coincides with SXSW 2012, it’s her time. Fiona Apple wins the year.