Real Estate Rumblings

Austin homeownership rates go through the roof during pandemic

Austin's homeownership rates are soaring.

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Buoyed by historically low mortgage rates and robust home sales activity, Austin has blown the roof off its homeownership rate.

In the third quarter of this year, the homeownership rate in the Austin metro area skyrocketed to 74.7 percent, according to a report released November 17 by the Texas A&M University Real Estate Center. That’s the highest rate since U.S. Census Bureau data about homeownership in the Austin area first became available in 1996.

For the second quarter of this year, Austin’s homeownership rate stood at 65.8 percent, almost 9 percentage points below its level just one quarter later, according to the A&M Real Estate Center. In the third quarter of 2019, it was 60.3 percent.

The Real Estate Center notes that Austin’s homeownership rate is the highest among the state's four major metro areas for the first time in 12 years.

In September, home sales in the Austin area jumped 31.5 percent compared with the same period in 2019, according to the Austin Board of Realtors. “Austin’s economy is bouncing back better than most cities, allowing more people to make a move to a home that meets their needs,” Vaike O’Grady, Austin regional director for housing data provider Zonda, said in a Board of Realtors release issued in October.

Jim Gaines, the TAMU Real Estate Center’s chief economist, warns that homeownership rates in Austin and elsewhere in Texas could slide next year as pandemic-era protections against home foreclosures expire.

For the time being, though, Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth are basking in record-high homeownership rates.

In DFW, the homeownership rate reached a record-high 69 percent in the third quarter of this year, according to the Real Estate Center’s report. That compares with 64.9 percent in the second quarter of this year and 61.5 percent in the third quarter of 2019. Federal homeownership data for DFW dates back to 2005.

Meanwhile, the homeownership rate in the San Antonio area barely budged. The report shows the rate went from 66 percent in the second quarter of this year to 66.3 percent in the third quarter. That compares with 61.1 percent in the third quarter of last year and the record high of 76 percent in the fourth quarter of 2004. San Antonio’s data goes back to 1996.

Houston, which has been battered by the pandemic recession and a downturn in the oil industry, saw the regional homeownership rate drop from the second quarter of this year (67.9 percent, a record high) to the third quarter (65.5 percent), the report says. In the third quarter of last year, the rate sat at 61.9 percent. Houston’s data dates back to 2005.

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Homebuyers can afford to be picky as Austin housing inventory rises

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Housing economist Clare Losey said the most significant factor affecting home sales in Austin is high mortgage rates.

The latest real estate report from Unlock MLS and the Austin Board of Realtors (ABoR) has revealed housing inventory is still on a steady rise in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA, creating more choices for potential homebuyers as they navigate a high interest rate market.

Residential home sales dipped by a mere 1.5 percent year-over-year from October 2023, amounting to 2,248 closed sales in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA. Median prices have also dropped to $430,000, or 3.2 percent less than this time last year. More than 3,300 new home listings were added on the market — a 7.4 percent increase from 2023 — bringing the total number of active home listings to 11,599.

According to Unlock MLS and ABoR housing economist Clare Losey, Ph.D., October's mortgage rates stood at 6.4 percent and are showing no signs of a significant drop in the near future. Even heading into 2025, Losey says potential homebuyers who are biding their time in the hopes of seeing rates plummet "may be in for a long wait."

"In the meantime, sellers must recognize that bringing buyers to the table requires a more aggressive pricing approach," Losey said. "Even in a more balanced market, buyers with limited purchasing power are struggling to meet current price expectations."

As for the overall health of the Central Texas housing market, 2024 Unlock MLS and ABoR president Kent Redding labeled recent news reports that called Austin "ground zero" for a downturn as an "extreme over-exaggeration."

"Austin led the state and nation in record-breaking home price growth and sales activity during the pandemic," Redding said. "For three years, near-zero housing inventory, numerous offers above list price and a rapid-paced market raised home prices and left little negotiating power for buyers. During this record-setting growth, ABoR and Unlock MLS consistently emphasized the unsustainability of the rapid growth, and now, our market is working to balance those extremes."

Central Texas housing trends in October 2024

In Travis County, 979 homes were sold last month — a slight 2.5 percent increase from last year. Median prices remained flat year-over-year at $510,000. Active home listings continued growing to 5,702 homes, which is 9.4 percent more year-over-year.

In Williamson County, 807 homes were sold in October, with median prices steadily dropping to $420,000. There were 1,028 new home listings on the market, showing a 4.5 percent increase from October 2023, bringing the total number of active home listings to 3,369.

Residential home sales dropped by nearly eight percent in Hays County in October, totaling 315 sales. Median prices also fell 5.5 percent year-over-year to $359,000. Active listings rose 6.6 percent year-over-year to 1,740 homes with the addition of 534 new listings on the market.

Meanwhile, 114 homes were sold in Bastrop County last month, which is 4.4 percent more than this time last year. Median prices dropped by a single percentage point year-over-year to $355,000. There were 654 active listings on the market in October, and 152 new home listings, representing a 1.3 percent slip in new inventory when compared to last year.

Only 33 homes were sold in Caldwell County in October to reflect a near 14 percent decline year-over-year from October 2023. Median prices fell to $262,990, which was a 13.5 percent decrease from last year. There were 136 active homes on the market last month, and 40 new homes added on the market.

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