Real Estate Report

Austin home sales fall for third month in a row — what it means for 2018

It's the third month in a row that Austin home sales have dipped.

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For the third month in a row, home sales in Austin proper have declined. According to the latest report from the Austin Board of Realtors, single-family home sales in the city limits declined 3.3 percent in November 2017. Home sales in the greater metro area, however, are on the upswing again.

In November, home sales in the Austin-Round Rock metro area increased 3.7 percent year-over-year, while the median home price increased almost 3 percent, to $296,500. Prices in Austin also increased — 6.8 percent year-over-year, to $360,000.

These findings continue the trend seen in October 2017, when citywide home sales fell 1.7 percent and metro home sales grew 2.2 percent. In September, home sales fell across the board: 4.1 percent in Austin and 4.3 percent in the metro area.

Despite the slowdown, ABoR president Brandy Guthrie says 2017 could still be one for the record books.

“Even with the market normalization trends we are seeing, home sales volume throughout the Austin-Round Rock MSA is still on-pace with 2016 year to date,” added Guthrie. “If this month’s home sales volume exceeds that of December 2016, 2017 will most likely be another record-breaking year for the Austin-area housing market.”

And what should prospective buyers expect in the new year?

“The 2018 Austin-area housing market will be a lot like this year’s housing market — slower, but still very strong housing market activity,” Mark Sprague, state director of information capital for Independence Title, says.

“However, there are multiple economic factors to watch out for going into next year. Slowing job growth in Central Texas, the impact of Hurricane Harvey on the price of building materials and housing development costs, and the overhaul of the U.S. tax plan are all factors that could hinder housing market growth and negatively impact housing affordability in the Austin area in 2018.”

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Homebuyers can afford to be picky as Austin housing inventory rises

Photo by Avinash Kumar on Unsplash

Housing economist Clare Losey said the most significant factor affecting home sales in Austin is high mortgage rates.

The latest real estate report from Unlock MLS and the Austin Board of Realtors (ABoR) has revealed housing inventory is still on a steady rise in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA, creating more choices for potential homebuyers as they navigate a high interest rate market.

Residential home sales dipped by a mere 1.5 percent year-over-year from October 2023, amounting to 2,248 closed sales in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA. Median prices have also dropped to $430,000, or 3.2 percent less than this time last year. More than 3,300 new home listings were added on the market — a 7.4 percent increase from 2023 — bringing the total number of active home listings to 11,599.

According to Unlock MLS and ABoR housing economist Clare Losey, Ph.D., October's mortgage rates stood at 6.4 percent and are showing no signs of a significant drop in the near future. Even heading into 2025, Losey says potential homebuyers who are biding their time in the hopes of seeing rates plummet "may be in for a long wait."

"In the meantime, sellers must recognize that bringing buyers to the table requires a more aggressive pricing approach," Losey said. "Even in a more balanced market, buyers with limited purchasing power are struggling to meet current price expectations."

As for the overall health of the Central Texas housing market, 2024 Unlock MLS and ABoR president Kent Redding labeled recent news reports that called Austin "ground zero" for a downturn as an "extreme over-exaggeration."

"Austin led the state and nation in record-breaking home price growth and sales activity during the pandemic," Redding said. "For three years, near-zero housing inventory, numerous offers above list price and a rapid-paced market raised home prices and left little negotiating power for buyers. During this record-setting growth, ABoR and Unlock MLS consistently emphasized the unsustainability of the rapid growth, and now, our market is working to balance those extremes."

Central Texas housing trends in October 2024

In Travis County, 979 homes were sold last month — a slight 2.5 percent increase from last year. Median prices remained flat year-over-year at $510,000. Active home listings continued growing to 5,702 homes, which is 9.4 percent more year-over-year.

In Williamson County, 807 homes were sold in October, with median prices steadily dropping to $420,000. There were 1,028 new home listings on the market, showing a 4.5 percent increase from October 2023, bringing the total number of active home listings to 3,369.

Residential home sales dropped by nearly eight percent in Hays County in October, totaling 315 sales. Median prices also fell 5.5 percent year-over-year to $359,000. Active listings rose 6.6 percent year-over-year to 1,740 homes with the addition of 534 new listings on the market.

Meanwhile, 114 homes were sold in Bastrop County last month, which is 4.4 percent more than this time last year. Median prices dropped by a single percentage point year-over-year to $355,000. There were 654 active listings on the market in October, and 152 new home listings, representing a 1.3 percent slip in new inventory when compared to last year.

Only 33 homes were sold in Caldwell County in October to reflect a near 14 percent decline year-over-year from October 2023. Median prices fell to $262,990, which was a 13.5 percent decrease from last year. There were 136 active homes on the market last month, and 40 new homes added on the market.

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