Suburban Surge

Suburbs to propel Austin area past population milestone this year

Austin suburbs continue to propel area growth.

The Austin metro area is now home to nearly 2.2 million people — about 100,000 more than the region had just 18 months ago — and the suburbs are propelling much of that growth.

When will the Austin area actually pass the 2.2 million mark? Ryan Robinson, the City of Austin’s demographer, predicts that’ll happen sometime around this October.

New estimates from Robinson indicate the region had 2,156,168 residents as of January 1, 2018. That’s up 4.9 percent from 2,056,405 on July 1, 2016, as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

According to Robinson’s estimates, the city of Austin had 963,116 residents as of January 1, 2018, compared with 947,890 as of July 1, 2016. That’s an 18-month rise of 1.6 percent.

The 1.6 percent population increase for the city of Austin, compared with the region’s overall growth rate of 4.9 percent, suggests the suburbs — where homes and apartments are cheaper — continue to be a magnet for residents. In recent years, the growth rate of suburbs like Cedar Park and Georgetown has outpaced the growth rate of Austin.

Robinson thinks the “biggest story” among the area’s population growth trends is that the city's share of the region’s growth fell to 30 percent in 2015-16 from 48 percent in 2011-12. Going forward, he thinks that figure will stay around 30 percent to 35 percent.

“To my mind, there are more quality-of-life amenities within the city, but the price of housing continues to climb and the vast majority of new units are being created in the suburbs,” Robinson tells CultureMap.

The suburban surge is reflected in figures compiled by the Austin Board of Realtors. In November, the volume of single-family home sales climbed 10.2 percent in Williamson County compared with a year earlier and 14.3 percent in Hays County, according to the Austin Board of Realtors. Meanwhile, the volume of single-family home sales slipped 1.3 percent in Travis County and 3.3 percent in the city of Austin.

Lower home prices in Williamson and Hays counties help explain the jump in sales volume.

In Williamson County, the median price in November for a single-family home was $275,000; in Hays County, it was $260,000. By comparison, the median price in November for a single-family home in Travis County was $341,000, and $360,000 within the city limits.

“Due to rapid population growth throughout Central Texas, Austin continues to have one of the highest demands for housing in the nation,” Brandy Guthrie, immediate past president of the Austin Board of Realtors, said in December. “Homes sales are the strongest where price points are the lowest and where development options are available, such as parts of Williamson and Hays counties.”

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Study This

Austin is the No. 7 most educated city in the country, says Forbes

Photo by Dan Dennis on Unsplash

UT Austin gets a lot of praise, but this study includes degrees from everywhere — as long as the recipient lives in Texas.

Austin and San Antonio don't get all the same opportunities as the even larger cities in Texas, but in a recent study they prove they're prepared. Both made the top 10 in Forbes Advisor's "Most Educated Cities In The U.S." list: San Antonio was No. 4, and Austin was No. 7.

Other Texas cities made the list of 100, but some fell surprisingly far behind. Dallas made No. 20, followed by Houston at No. 79 and Fort Worth at No. 93. In some even more surprising twists, the smaller city of Garland was the fourth in Texas at No. 26, and El Paso, Corpus Christi, and Laredo all beat Houston.

This study compared the 100 largest cities in the country as of the 2021 census, using metrics like high school dropout rate, percentage of adults age 25 and older with some college, but no degree, undergraduate college completion rate, and percentage of adults age 25 and older with an advanced degree. There were also some lower-weighted metrics about equity, studying racial and gender college completion gaps.

Although many education studies fall into praising the University of Texas, this one considers education as a whole — while still mentioning the university once.

In San Antonio, the bachelor’s completion rate for people 25 and up was 67.30 percent, and 29.56 percent of people in that age group have advanced degrees. The study doesn't have much to say about educational opportunities in the city, focusing instead of its tourist potential. But it did note that the city had one of the smallest racial gaps for higher ed, which was only -5.49 percent. Its gender gap was 0.97 percent, and its high school dropout rate was 4.53 percent.

San Antonio's Trinity University did great in a Niche study that came out in early September. It was the No. 18 best small college in America, and topped the list entirely in Texas. Among bigger fish, it was also the No. 20 best liberal arts college in the country (and again the best in Texas), and made No. 4 in general for best colleges in Texas.

In Austin, 59.89 of people 25 or older completed Bachelor's degrees, and 22.76 percent completed advanced degrees. The racial gap was much worse at -10.87 percent. Its gender gap was a bit less than San Antonio's, at 0.69 percent, and its high school dropout rate was more at 7.56 percent.

Of course, this is where the study mentions UT, which is based in Austin. It made WalletHub's 2024 ranking of the best colleges and universities in Texas and earned the No. 2 spot; clinched the No. 6 spot in Niche's ranking of the best public universities in the country; and earned No. 2 in a list of best undergraduate programs for entrepreneurs by the Princeton Review, among other accolades.

Just breaking into the top 20, Dallas' Bachelor's degree completion rate was 57.05 percent, with 21.37 percent attaining advanced degrees. The racial and gender gaps were −14.99 percent and 1.64 percent, respectively. Much further down the list, Houston's Bachelor's degree completion rate was only 32.99 percent, and only 10.97% achieved advanced degrees. High school dropouts were at 8.90 percent, and the racial and gender gaps were −4.99 and 2.10 percent respectively.

Here are all the Texas cities on the list of 100, in order from most to least educated:

4. San Antonio
7. Austin
20. Dallas
26. Garland
49. El Paso
59. Corpus Christi
76. Laredo
79. Houston
81. Arlington
83. Irving

More information on the study by Forbes advisor, including full city rankings and expanded methodology, is available at forbes.com.

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