Leaps and bounds

Forecast shows Austin-area population could surpass San Antonio by 2040

Austin's population could exceed San Antonio's in under 20 years.

Photo courtesy of Metropia

No one can gaze into a crystal ball and tell us what the population of the Austin metro area will be two decades from now. Forecasts from professional prognosticators give us a pretty good idea, though.

A CultureMap analysis of the most recent population projections from the Texas Water Development Board, a government agency that helps manage the state’s water supply, shows the Austin area may enter eye-popping territory by 2040. The analysis indicates the population of the Austin metro area will exceed the population of the now-larger San Antonio metro area in just 18 years.

Based on the water board’s county-by-county outlook for Texas, the population of the five-county Austin area will reach 3,340,450 in 2040. By comparison, the population of the eight-county San Antonio area will hit 3,285,451 in 2040, according to the outlook. Some officials, including Austin Mayor Steve Adler, believe the Austin and San Antonio areas are merging into a “metroplex” like Dallas-Fort Worth.

To put these numbers into perspective, the current population of Southern California’s San Diego metro area is around 3.3 million, making it the 17th largest metro in the country. Today, San Antonio ranks as 24th largest U.S. metro, with Austin four spots behind at No. 28.

Adam Perdue, a research economist at Texas A&M University’s Texas Real Estate Research Center, says the prediction that the Austin area’s population will overtake the San Antonio area’s population by 2040 is “reasonable.”

“Austin’s population growth for the last three decades has been much swifter than San Antonio’s. The thing that makes this forecasting difficult is that San Antonio’s growth has been somewhat stable while Austin’s higher growth rate is moderating,” Perdue says.

Perdue questions whether the Austin metro can sustain its higher growth rate, given its “current growing pains.” However, he says, the Austin metro has been outperforming the state’s other major metros over the past two years in terms of housing permits issued per capita. This housing growth “bodes well” for the Austin-surpassing-San Antonio scenario, he notes.

The water board’s forecast shows the San Antonio area will still be larger than the Austin area in 2030 — 2,928,335 residents vs. 2,814,237. But by 2040, the two regions will switch positions, according to the board’s projections. At that point, Austin would be the state’s third largest metro area, and San Antonio would sit at No. 4.

Dallas-Fort Worth ranks as the state’s largest metro and should remain in that position for decades to come. The Houston area almost certainly will remain the state’s second largest metro in the near and distant future.

As of 2021, the population of the San Antonio area was estimated at 2,601,788, compared with 2,352,426 for the Austin area. If the water board’s predictions come true, that population gap would narrow in 2030, and Austin would leapfrog San Antonio in 2040.

In 2050, 2060, and 2070, the population divide between the Austin and San Antonio areas should widen, according to the water board’s numbers. The agency envisions the population of the Austin area climbing past 5 million in 2070 (5,088,247, to be precise), compared with 4,253,684 for San Antonio.

These numbers don’t account for the possibility that the federal government will add counties to the Austin metro area or San Antonio metro area based on updated U.S. Census Bureau head counts.

The federal government defines a metro area as “a core area containing a substantial population nucleus, together with adjacent communities having a high degree of economic and social integration with that core.” So, if the federal government determined a county that’s now outside the Austin or San Antonio metro area had become more economically and socially integrated, it could attach that county to what’s currently the five-county Austin area or the eight-county San Antonio area.

Red Light

San Antonio leads Texas on ending horse-drawn carriage rides by 2030

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Horses will no longer pull carriages on the streets of downtown San Antonio.

San Antonio has pulled off something that the rest of Texas has yet to do, but it didn't come without some contentious conversations. City Council has unanimously voted (with one abstention) to phase out the use of horse-drawn carriages over the next five years. That means by January 1, 2030, there will be none on the streets at all; instead, there will be electric carriages.

These plans have been in the making since 2022 — if not always at the same level of intensity — when District 2 Councilmember Jalen McKee-Rodriguez and District 3 Councilmember Phyllis Viagran wrote up some concerns about the horses' wellbeing. A special session at the end of October 2024 hinted to San Antonians that the end for this practice was neigh — sorry, nigh — and the final vote was made on December 12. In addition to accepting the plan, it extended its timeframe by two years.

The initial proposal included worries about the horses' exposure to traffic and pollution, as well how their presence might exacerbate those issues for the environment at large by slowing traffic. It also raised concerns about the effects of standing or walking on hard surfaces for too long, or spending time in extreme weather.

At the December 12 meeting, San Antonians gave impassioned speeches about animal welfare — both to call attention to the need for better conditions and to defend the reputations and jobs of current horse drivers — but it wasn't the first time the council heard from the public about the issue.

In a prior city survey, 50,476 respondents weighed in. Of those respondents, 51.98 percent said they liked the idea to "Transition horse-drawn carriages to electric carriages and pedicabs and ban horse drawn carriages completely." There were alternative solutions listed, but respondents were less drawn to them.

A cultural divide emerged in the data and continued in the December meeting: some people avoided the carriages because they worried about the treatment of the horses, while others enjoyed them because of their historical echoes and living legacy. Many speakers in favor of the plan used this to form their argument, raising questions about history versus progress.

More tangible objections to the plan hinged on the businesses — specifically five companies — and jobs that would be lost, which was the main factor behind extending the adjustment period.

Discussions about the particulars of the electric vehicles are still to come, as confirmed in the discussion near the end of the meeting. Councilmember Jalen McKee-Rodriguez addressed concerns about what would happen to the horses, mentioning the Brady Hunter Foundation as a future partner in finding them rescue homes.

Some council members also brought up rhetorical questions about animal exploitation by groups like Sea World, the San Antonio Stock Show & Rodeo, military and police forces, and even various groups in the Fiesta parade, although these did not come with a formal motion to pick the issues up.

This decision could have a ripple effect on other Texas cities. Dallas has recently considered a similar ban, but it appears to have stalled; Austin's attempts at a ban have been unsuccessful, but according to the Austin-American Statesman, only one operator is permitted to bring horses downtown. She declines to do so because the long hours are unfair to her and the horses. Houston does have horse-drawn carriages, and there seems to be little conversation about banning them.

Cities like Chicago and Salt Lake City have led the charge in the United States with some of the most prominent successful bans. Other cities around the world with bans include Brussels and Guadalajara, which both switched to electric models. Bans that have been around for years, like Guadalajara's and Prague's, still aren't out of the woods — people are still pushing back on the decision, so it sounds like San Antonio still has much work cut out for it.

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