Housing pain

Austin sees biggest spike in mortgage payments in the U.S., says Zillow

Austin saw the biggest year-over-year rise in mortgage payments in the U.S.

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Talk about sticker shock. Among the country’s 50 biggest metro areas, Austin saw the biggest rise in mortgage payments from March 2021 to this March 2022, according to a new report from real estate platform Zillow.

The report shows a year-over-over change of 63.5 percent in the typical Austin-area mortgage payment. That figure is based on principal and interest for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage with a 20 percent down payment. That compares with a nationwide jump of 38 percent. Zillow pegged the Austin metro area’s typical monthly mortgage payment at $2,299.

“Home shoppers are facing a one-two affordability punch this spring: Quickly rising mortgage rates are compounding affordability challenges that have been brought on by record home value growth,” Zillow says.

Other major Texas metro areas experienced year-to-year spikes in the typical monthly mortgage payment, but not nearly at the level witnessed in Austin:

Dallas-Fort Worth ranked 10th with a 48 percent year-over-year increase in the typical monthly mortgage payment ($1,445).
San Antonio ranked 16th with a 42.8 percent year-over-year increase in the typical monthly mortgage payment ($1,256).
Houston ranked 21st with a 38.8 percent year-over-year increase in the typical monthly mortgage payment ($1,144).

Among the 50 biggest metro areas, Washington, D.C., registered the lowest year-over-year increase in the typical monthly mortgage payment, 27.4 percent, the Zillow report shows.

“Higher mortgage rates were anticipated this year, but the speed of their rise has been breathtaking,” says Jeff Tucker, Zillow’s senior economist. “Record-low mortgage rates had been an affordability lifeline during the pandemic, keeping monthly payments in check even while prices climbed quickly.”

“March was the biggest test yet of whether enough buyers can meet the new asking prices to keep home values growing at a record pace, and the answer was ‘So far, yes,’” Tucker adds. “There will be a point when the cost of buying a home deters enough buyers to bring price growth back down to earth, but for now, there is plenty of fuel in the tank as home-shopping season kicks into gear.”

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Homebuyers can afford to be picky as Austin housing inventory rises

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Housing economist Clare Losey said the most significant factor affecting home sales in Austin is high mortgage rates.

The latest real estate report from Unlock MLS and the Austin Board of Realtors (ABoR) has revealed housing inventory is still on a steady rise in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA, creating more choices for potential homebuyers as they navigate a high interest rate market.

Residential home sales dipped by a mere 1.5 percent year-over-year from October 2023, amounting to 2,248 closed sales in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA. Median prices have also dropped to $430,000, or 3.2 percent less than this time last year. More than 3,300 new home listings were added on the market — a 7.4 percent increase from 2023 — bringing the total number of active home listings to 11,599.

According to Unlock MLS and ABoR housing economist Clare Losey, Ph.D., October's mortgage rates stood at 6.4 percent and are showing no signs of a significant drop in the near future. Even heading into 2025, Losey says potential homebuyers who are biding their time in the hopes of seeing rates plummet "may be in for a long wait."

"In the meantime, sellers must recognize that bringing buyers to the table requires a more aggressive pricing approach," Losey said. "Even in a more balanced market, buyers with limited purchasing power are struggling to meet current price expectations."

As for the overall health of the Central Texas housing market, 2024 Unlock MLS and ABoR president Kent Redding labeled recent news reports that called Austin "ground zero" for a downturn as an "extreme over-exaggeration."

"Austin led the state and nation in record-breaking home price growth and sales activity during the pandemic," Redding said. "For three years, near-zero housing inventory, numerous offers above list price and a rapid-paced market raised home prices and left little negotiating power for buyers. During this record-setting growth, ABoR and Unlock MLS consistently emphasized the unsustainability of the rapid growth, and now, our market is working to balance those extremes."

Central Texas housing trends in October 2024

In Travis County, 979 homes were sold last month — a slight 2.5 percent increase from last year. Median prices remained flat year-over-year at $510,000. Active home listings continued growing to 5,702 homes, which is 9.4 percent more year-over-year.

In Williamson County, 807 homes were sold in October, with median prices steadily dropping to $420,000. There were 1,028 new home listings on the market, showing a 4.5 percent increase from October 2023, bringing the total number of active home listings to 3,369.

Residential home sales dropped by nearly eight percent in Hays County in October, totaling 315 sales. Median prices also fell 5.5 percent year-over-year to $359,000. Active listings rose 6.6 percent year-over-year to 1,740 homes with the addition of 534 new listings on the market.

Meanwhile, 114 homes were sold in Bastrop County last month, which is 4.4 percent more than this time last year. Median prices dropped by a single percentage point year-over-year to $355,000. There were 654 active listings on the market in October, and 152 new home listings, representing a 1.3 percent slip in new inventory when compared to last year.

Only 33 homes were sold in Caldwell County in October to reflect a near 14 percent decline year-over-year from October 2023. Median prices fell to $262,990, which was a 13.5 percent decrease from last year. There were 136 active homes on the market last month, and 40 new homes added on the market.

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