Sticker shock

New real estate report reveals jaw-dropping increase in Austin home prices

Out-of-state buyers are driving local home prices skyward.

Photo by Krisanapong Detraphiphat/Getty

A new report from real estate brokerage Redfin offers a stunning picture of just how crazy the Austin housing market has become.

The report, released May 19, shows that among the country’s 85 largest metro areas, Austin recorded the biggest year-over-year rise in April for median home-sale prices — a jaw-dropping 42.3 percent. In second place were Oxnard, California, and Miami, each at 25.8 percent.

“Austin’s housing market has been booming for several years now, and [Austin] has really become one of the major destinations for migration from high-earning individuals across the nation,” Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, tells CultureMap.

“Many of our recent reports have shown that people are moving to Austin from major metropolitan areas like New York and the Bay Area, and relocating to states like Texas that offer lower taxes, lower housing prices, and more space for them and their families,” Fairweather adds. “This migration trend has caused many locals to be priced out and newcomers to have to deal with competitive bidding wars — often driving prices up even more.”

Elsewhere in Texas, Dallas saw a 19.9 percent year-over-year jump in median home-sale prices last month, with Houston at 16.8 percent, San Antonio at 14.6 percent, and Fort Worth at 14.3 percent, according to Redfin.

A further testament to Austin’s wild housing market: 73.7 percent of homes in the region sold above list price last month, Redfin says. Only Oakland and San Jose, California, and Tacoma, Washington, registered higher numbers in that category.

Here are April’s above-list-price figures for the other major metro markets in Texas:

Fort Worth, 52.8 percent.
San Antonio, 47.4 percent.
Dallas, 38.2 percent.
Houston, 28.6 percent.

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Homebuyers can afford to be picky as Austin housing inventory rises

Photo by Avinash Kumar on Unsplash

Housing economist Clare Losey said the most significant factor affecting home sales in Austin is high mortgage rates.

The latest real estate report from Unlock MLS and the Austin Board of Realtors (ABoR) has revealed housing inventory is still on a steady rise in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA, creating more choices for potential homebuyers as they navigate a high interest rate market.

Residential home sales dipped by a mere 1.5 percent year-over-year from October 2023, amounting to 2,248 closed sales in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA. Median prices have also dropped to $430,000, or 3.2 percent less than this time last year. More than 3,300 new home listings were added on the market — a 7.4 percent increase from 2023 — bringing the total number of active home listings to 11,599.

According to Unlock MLS and ABoR housing economist Clare Losey, Ph.D., October's mortgage rates stood at 6.4 percent and are showing no signs of a significant drop in the near future. Even heading into 2025, Losey says potential homebuyers who are biding their time in the hopes of seeing rates plummet "may be in for a long wait."

"In the meantime, sellers must recognize that bringing buyers to the table requires a more aggressive pricing approach," Losey said. "Even in a more balanced market, buyers with limited purchasing power are struggling to meet current price expectations."

As for the overall health of the Central Texas housing market, 2024 Unlock MLS and ABoR president Kent Redding labeled recent news reports that called Austin "ground zero" for a downturn as an "extreme over-exaggeration."

"Austin led the state and nation in record-breaking home price growth and sales activity during the pandemic," Redding said. "For three years, near-zero housing inventory, numerous offers above list price and a rapid-paced market raised home prices and left little negotiating power for buyers. During this record-setting growth, ABoR and Unlock MLS consistently emphasized the unsustainability of the rapid growth, and now, our market is working to balance those extremes."

Central Texas housing trends in October 2024

In Travis County, 979 homes were sold last month — a slight 2.5 percent increase from last year. Median prices remained flat year-over-year at $510,000. Active home listings continued growing to 5,702 homes, which is 9.4 percent more year-over-year.

In Williamson County, 807 homes were sold in October, with median prices steadily dropping to $420,000. There were 1,028 new home listings on the market, showing a 4.5 percent increase from October 2023, bringing the total number of active home listings to 3,369.

Residential home sales dropped by nearly eight percent in Hays County in October, totaling 315 sales. Median prices also fell 5.5 percent year-over-year to $359,000. Active listings rose 6.6 percent year-over-year to 1,740 homes with the addition of 534 new listings on the market.

Meanwhile, 114 homes were sold in Bastrop County last month, which is 4.4 percent more than this time last year. Median prices dropped by a single percentage point year-over-year to $355,000. There were 654 active listings on the market in October, and 152 new home listings, representing a 1.3 percent slip in new inventory when compared to last year.

Only 33 homes were sold in Caldwell County in October to reflect a near 14 percent decline year-over-year from October 2023. Median prices fell to $262,990, which was a 13.5 percent decrease from last year. There were 136 active homes on the market last month, and 40 new homes added on the market.

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