The lead meteorologist for the state’s power grid operator, ERCOT, is predicting both a warmer winter and a higher chance of extreme cold.

During a Tuesday board meeting, Chris Coleman said current climate patterns are very similar to those in 2021 when a winter storm knocked out power for millions of Texans for several days.

“Now, that doesn’t mean we’re going to have [Winter Storm] Uri, but it does again say that we’re in a pattern that supports something like a Uri this winter,” said Coleman, ERCOT's supervisor of operational forecasting.

Coleman compared his winter forecast to a tornado watch: The conditions are there, but the storm may or may not happen.

ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas told KVUE on November 25 that he doesn’t expect calls for conservation or rolling blackouts.

“We're ready for those kinds of conditions at ERCOT,” said Vegas.

During Tuesday’s board meeting, Vegas touted nearly 3,000 weatherization inspections since 2021 and more than 10,000 megawatts of new generation added to the grid since March, mostly solar and battery storage. ERCOT estimates 1 megawatt can power 250 homes on average during peak winter demand.

However, Texas energy consultant Doug Lewin questions that math.

“[We are] better off than we were in February 2021 but not out of the woods,” said Lewin, who authors the Texas Energy and Power Hour newsletter and hosts the Energy Capital podcast. “We don’t have a system that’s resilient enough to deal with a Winter Storm Uri.”

Lewin points to two main reasons: a natural gas supply system he says is not adequately winterized, along with inefficient homes and buildings that push demand beyond supply.

“We have to bring that demand down and do that by increasing the programs we have for energy efficiency to replace inefficient heat with much more efficient forms of heat, like heat pumps.”

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